| Coal is main energy and important industrial raw material in the economic development of our country. China is rich in coal, lack of oil and gas. So coal will still be important resources in our country in the future for a longer period of time.In Central China deposits of coal are small and coal mining is difficult, but the coal demand is increasing. When sudden natural disasters will lead to the status of the coal supply disruptions. Building coal reserve base is very important in order to ensure the supply of coal emergency when sudden natural disasters.This paper first analyzes the present situation of coal in Central China, then using grey prediction model to forecast the production and demand of coal resources in Central China. At the same time analysis coal supply and demand gap in central China showed a trend of increase gradually. The contradiction between supply and demand is growing, so it is necessary to build a coal emergency reserve in Central China.Secondly, based on the emergency facility location model, targeting the minimum the sum of construction cost and response cost and taking the maximum storage capacity of reserve base, emergency restrictions, demand point only by a single reserve point to provide services such as constraint conditions, this paper build a coal emergency reserve base location model in Central China. The conclusion is that selecting Huangshi, Jingzhou, Xiangtan to establish coal emergency reserve base from eight candidate reserves points.Finally, Based on the analysis of coal emergency reserve determine on the basis of the principle and influence factors, using the theory of social welfare and cost-benefit analysis method to study the coal emergency reserve, building a coal emergency reserve decision model. The conclusion is that in response to the sudden natural disasters of coal emergency reserve is 8 coal consumption "day" in Central China. Then figured out the emergency reserves of each point. |
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