Research On The Evaluation And Forecast For Regional Competitiveness Of Technological Innovation Talents

Regional technological innovation talents are the core elements of development of economic andsocial regional and the basis for regional innovation system to play a role. Regional technologicalinnovation talents become the most valuable and scarce resources, and the core of enhancing a regionand a country's competitiveness, beyond physical and capital. So it has important theoretical value andpractical significance that evaluation and prediction of the competitiveness of the regional level ontechnological innovation. Main results are as follows:(1) The law of growth of technological innovation and the factors of affect growth arestudied.Analyze the four stages of growth on technological innovation talent, and decompose growthcharacteristics and the main factors affecting in every stage. On this basis, optimization ideas ontechnological innovation system are proposed.(2) Construct index system of the regional technological innovation competitiveness. Discuss thedefinition of the regional technological innovation, content, impact factors and other issues andconstruct index system of the regional technological innovation competitiveness based onScience-based, completeness, feasibility and other principles. Give methods and procedures todetermine weights based on AHP.(3) Propose a dynamic evaluation method based on gray relational analysis and a hybridmulti-gray target evaluation method which are used to address evaluation of uncertain multi-index inthe actual evaluation of competitiveness of the regional technological innovation and small samplewith dynamic time series index value which is difficult to precise. Propose unbiased GM (1,1) modeland unbiased recursive Grey Verhulst model and their optimization solution. To further enrich anddevelop quantitative research methods of evaluation and prediction of the regional technologicalinnovation' competitiveness.(4) Empirical research on competitiveness of China's six central provinces technologicalinnovation. First, analyze the size, structure and inputs of technological innovation talent in six centralprovinces and the status of outputs of science and technology. Then make empirical research oncompetitiveness in2005-2008.It shows that technological innovation order in2005-2008is Hubei,Hunan, Shanxi, Anhui, Henan, Jiangxi. Using gray prediction model proposed in this paper on China'ssix central provinces2009-2012technological innovation competitiveness of the predictive analysis,forecasting results show that the six central provinces of technological innovation different levels of competitiveness wil continue to shrink.(5) Propose suggestions on enhancing the competitiveness of technological innovation.Suggestions are proposed from aspects of the conditions of construction, systems guidance, teambuilding, improve the evaluation and incentive mechanism.