Study On Spatio-temporal Optimization Of Sustainable Regional Land Use

Sustainability and optimal allocation of land resources are the two important issues for the current land resources management. Generally the sustainability of land use is the final objective of optimal land-use allocation, and the optimal allocation is the main way to achieve the sustainable land use. To address the combination of these two issues, this paper mainly focused on the optimization of quantity change and spatial pattern of land use and carried out the following studies.Based on the considerations of sustainability science, mechanism of sustainable land use, this paper analyzed the mechanism of social, economic and environmental factors'response to the change of land use, and developed the framework for sustainability evaluation of land use based on a modified Pressure-State-Response model, which could assist the decision-makers figure out the sustainability from the aspects of single-objective, multi-objective, the status quo, and dynamic developing.The issues of temporal change, quantity problem and the spatial allocation should be addressed during the optimal allocation of land use. The coupled model of system dynamics model and CLUE-S model was applied to figure out the above three issues. Based on the complicated relationships among economy, population and land use, SD model could simulate the land-use change in temporal level in specific scenario which is also the future land-use demand. For the spatial factors which are hard to be expressed by SD model, they could be well described in CLUE-S. Moreover, it is the spatial supply for land use that CLUE-S provides. The balance between land demand and supply links the temporal simulation and spatial allocation as a whole. Then planners or decision-makers could carry out scenario analysis according to the results to choose an optimal land-use plan.Finally, this case study was carried out in Jinan City. First, the study analyzed the dynamics of the temporal and spatial land use change in Jinan during 1996 to 2005, and evaluated the sustainability of local land use based on the framework. Then the simulations of the regional land use change for the period of 2006-2020 was carried out based on the coupled model. Through the contrast and evaluation of the simulating results under different developing scenarios, the main temporal and spatial characteristics of regional land use change and the current points that could be addressed for local land use were figured out.In this study, the sustainability of land use is not only the basic goal of spatio-temporal optimization of land use, but also the main principle to figure out the better optimization scenario. Moreover, the evaluation and analysis of the spatial allocation, which is based on CLUE-S model, based on the suitability and inheritance of land use could make up the insufficient considerations for the model itself, and it could help achieve the goals of sustainable land use.