Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics Of The Benchmark Land Price In Small-town Of Jilin Province And Prediction Research

Since the reform and opening up,the rapid development of small towns in China,the process of urbanization has been accelerating,small towns have also become the direction of population flow,how to regulate the small town land management,it is the key to sustainable development for small town.Metropolitan benchmark land price research is becoming more and more mature,but it is still rare in the small towns which accounting for the vast majority of China,Nong'an,Jilin Province,"one of the hundred strong town",it can reflect the characteristics of small towns in the aspect of economy,marketization degree and construction scale,therefore we selected Nong'an which is a small town in Jilin Province as a research case.On the basis of collected the benchmark land price data,the land market data and the social economic data of Nong'an,we can research the evolution characteristics of the benchmark land price by calculating the internal structure ratio.We can use ArcGIS overlay analysis and the extended intensity index to distinguish the spatial evolution characteristics of the benchmark land price.SPSS principal component analysis was used to discuss the main influencing factors of benchmark land price.Based on the spatio-temporal evolution of the benchmark land price,the ANN-CA model and the regression model are used to forecast the benchmark land price for the year of 2020.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The fluctuation range of the benchmark land price of various land-use types are as follows: residential land,commercial land and industrial land.Among all types of lands,the price gap between class ?,?,? and class?is decreasing.(2)The spatial evolution characteristics of the benchmark land price,From 1995 to 2004,the high-rise area mainly distributed in the vicinity of the town center,the mid-rise area covers most of the whole area,and the low rise area is distributed on both sides of the railway;From 2004 to 2008,the high-rise area mainly distributed in the center of the town.the mid-rise area distributed in vicinity of the town center,and the low rise area is distributed in the periphery of the town;From 2008 to 2015,the high-rise area of commercial land mainly distributed in the south of the town center,the mid-rise area distributed in the center of the town and its south,and the low rise area circularly distributed in the periphery of the town;The high-rise area of residential land mainly distributed in the south of the town center,the mid-rise area distributed in the periphery of the high-rise area,and the low rise area semi-circularly distributed in the periphery of the town;The high-rise area of industrial land mainly distributed on the outside of the town road,the mid-rise area covers most of the whole area,and the low rise area sporadically distributed in the town center.(3)The trend of land expansion at all levels,from 1995 to 2004,class? was wings expansion,class?,? were multi-wing expansion,class ? was fan-shaped expansion;From 2004 to 2008,class?was multi-wing expansion,class?was wings expansion,class ?,?were wing expansion;From 2008 to 2015,class? of commercial land was single wing expansion,class?,?were wings expansion,class ? was multi-wing expansion;class?,?of residential land were wing expansion,class ?,? were wings expansion.(4)The main influencing factors of the land level are the prosperous degree of the commercial service,the condition of the basic facilities and the traffic conditions.The principal component analysis shows that the main influencing factors of the benchmark land price are the town economic level and the town development scale.(5)The forecast results show that,by 2020 the increase commercial land area of class?-?is 3.06%,7.82%,8.97% and-1.98% respectively,in Nong'an,and the increase of benchmark land price is 21.19%,23.53%,20.72% and 16.69% respectively;The increased residential land area of class?-?is 11.17%,-2.79%,13.56% and-3.86% respectively,and the increase of benchmark land price is 40.56%,50.26%,59.43% and 63.30% respectively.The increased industrial land area of class?-? is 9.92%,-5.58%,-0.47% respectively,and the increase of benchmark land price is 253.93%,262.62% and 195.88% respectively.