Study On China's Food Security In The New Situation

For a 13 hundred million-population big country , food security (both quantity and quality) has always been, a permanent issue and focus to the academe and the government .No matter No. 1 document, which was carried out by center govt, just after the economic innovation or the document carried out during 2004 and 2005, food security has always been discussed. Now China joined in WTO, along with the change of international economic environment, food security issue is pushed to a more necessary degree, which need be adjusted at any moment. That is the basic purpose of this research.Today, market economy system has been established in our country, at the same time China joined in WTO. Facing the trend of free-trade in whole globe, the research to food security has to adjust its old thoughtfulness from only caring about food supplies security to being concerned about both security of the whole country's macro-economy, efficient utilization of market both abroad and with the country, character and variety of food supplies, actualities and foreground of Chinese food security and cost unite. This research puts itself upon this reality, and annotates food security from the newly angle which considers both marketability and internationalization to instruct food production trade and macro-charge in our country.The thesis contains seven chapters including introduction, which goes along with the logic thinking: " background review → forecast about supply and consumption → complication analysis →policy suggestion". The introduction recommends purpose ,meaning , method and content of the research. The second chapter forecasts food supply and consumption during "the eleven five-year plan" by using the theory of grey system. The third chapter forecasts and analyzes fluctuating trend of food supply and consumption in metaphase and more long time. On the base of research ahead, the fourth and fifth chapters discuss the affection to food security about macro-economic circumstance, system change and technique transform. The sixth chapter is the conclusion, which brings forward the total policies to protect the security of food supplies on the base of metaphase and long phase purpose construction of macro-charge to food production.There is so much information about this research that it provides a great deal reference to the thesis, however it also makes difficult to get innovation. This paper tries to break through the old pattern from content system and methodology; the main innovative points are incarnated in:First, the thesis forecasts and analyzes food supply and consumption during "the eleven five-year plan" and in a long run by using different mathematic models according to the datum's origin and characteristic. The paper integrates several metric and statistical methods including gray system, multiple regression and etc. To forecast the equilibrium and changeable trend of food supply and consumption in our country, this provides demonstration to the coming research.Second, the paper reviews the relation between macro-economic function and food security from the angle of inflation and food price's effective mechanism. The paper supports the view that "inflation effects fluctuation of food's price but not in reverse" by using Grander-causality test. Combined with test and analysis the fluctuation of another group food' prices, we can conclude that the magnitude which inflation effects price is uncertain although it has effect. This is just the key whether market system or financial system is more necessary to draw out policy.Third, the thesis puts forward the total policy to protect food security in our country after constructs aims about macro-charge to food production in short and long run. The paper introduces several developed countries' successful experience and brings forward the aim, area and basic means to protect food security in our country in short and long run. At last, the thesis sums up the total policy to protect food security from social and economic system in rural area, product factor and external factor.