The Research On The Termination Decision And Diffusion Pattern Of Process Management Of Technological Innovation

Technological innovation has become the most propeller of economic development, social advancement and the rising of human living standard. It provides fundamental means for resolving separation of technology-economy in china and promoting technology advance. In this dissertation, the author analyzes connotation and micro-system of process of technological innovation at first and systematically studies and discusses management of process of technological innovation from innovation strategy management's angles. Very little research has been done on the termination decision of ongoing research and development (R&D) / innovation projects in the management of innovation process of our country. Based on discussing the significance and characters of R&D project termination decision and reviewing on the studying status of R&D termination decision at home and abroad, the paper introduces the relative ideas and methods of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Theory and evaluates dynamic running process of R&D projects in the light of the practice of China, and also analyses managerial barriers to innovation projects that are relative inefficient and appropriate policy countermeasures that could be taken. Meanwhile, artificial neural network theory is introduced to termination decision theory to develop a method for these decisions, which removes the deficiencies associated with the current termination decision methods. The research provide a new theoretical basis for following management of R&D / innovation projects and a set of operational decision methods and procedures for specific decision makers or government departments.The diffusion of technological innovation is the important sector for management of innovation process and a key stage of high-Technology industrialization. Most internal and external researches on the laws and patterns of innovation diffusion are confined with technical system itself. The research paper intends to study the high-Tec, diffusion within technology-economical system and proposes a diffusion model that is used to explained technological development state of receiver, and points out the action mechanism of every law during the different spread stage. It can be used to direct the management action of principal organizations in innovation diffusion. Furthermore, provide a new theoretical basis for government to formulate policies of high-Tec. Diffusion.The diffusion of technological innovations in China also depends to large extent on management elements. The accurate prediction of innovation diffusions is critical in designing marketing strategies for new product planning and management. Most internal and external researches on the estimation methods for estimating diffusionmodels is limited within a discrete form of a diffusion model or a solution to a diffusion models, this method which is directly applicable to differential diffusion models without imposing constraints on the model structure or nature of the unknown parameter seldom is reported. The paper develops a new estimation procedure that is directly applicable to differential diffusion models without imposing constraints. In order to improve the accurate prediction of innovation diffusion, a new nonlinear combination diffusion model also is proposed to remove deficiencies associated with the current diffusion model such as trend curve models, hybrid models. Furthermore the corresponding back propagation learning algorithm is put forward. Theoretical analysis and forecasting examples all show that the new technique has reinforcement learning properties and universalized capabilities. With respect to combined modeling and forecasting of innovation diffusion time series in nonlinear systems, which has some uncertainties, the method are feasible and effective.