The Research Of The Model Of Energy Supply And Demand And The Development Countermeasure Of China

The energy is an important material resources of existence, the economy development, the society progress and modern civilization.It is an important strategic supplies relating to the national economy and national defense safety. It has had the prominent position in modernization.It is the key period that the our country carried out the industrialization and it also is the period that economic structure, city level, and the residents consume structure take place the obvious variety at this middle period of this century ago. Economy and society will take place many revolution varieties, the energy realm also will face many challenges, the structure of the energy consumption and production and also will take place the homologous variety .The scienctific forecast of the energy demand and supply of our country have the important meaning for establishing the right energy development program and promoting the fast development of the national economy and the realization of the strategic target of our country.Based on the energy economical theory and foundation of the energy demand and supply,this text forecasts the amount of the demand and supply,analyse the energy indentation and substitution,puts forward the sustainable development projects applying the quantitative method.The First, the text discusses the relation between energy and economic growth, At the foundation of the economy growth model, adding into the stipulation of the energy and environment, the text sets up the economy growth model at the control of energy and environments .It studies the problem of the economy sustainable development;According to our country economy development, environment and the energy conditions, it sets up the energy forecast model combining domestic and international the energy forecast model,The second,from the angle of the energy resources, energy production scale, energy productivity and structure etc,the text analyses the present condition of energy production ,and from the energy consume and structure and industry energy consume of our country, it analyses the foundtion of energy demand ,and finds the problem and discusses the trend of the energy of world.The third, according to the energy forecast model, comprehensiviy applyingsystem dynamics model, gray system model, vector autoregression model and the change weigh combine forecast model, the text systematically and completely forecasts the energy supply and demand of our country over a long period of time.The Fourth,aiming at the energy indention ,the text analyses and forecasts the substitution elatisity between the energy and the capital and among the coal, petroleum,natural gas ang capital,applying the translog production fuction for improving the orenigal methods.The fifthjbased on the analysis of the forward chapter,the main factors have the economic growth,the industry structure and the technology for affecting the enengy consume.Applying the system dynamics model,the text analyses the affection of energy consume for the change of the economic grpwrh,industry structure and technology.lt discusses the relationship between the energy consume and the industry development applying the co-integration and the error-correction model.The main factores are the resources existion,teconology and the production scales with affecting the energy production.At last,combining with the forward analysis of the theory and demonstration,the text puts forward the actual energy development stratagem:improving the energy efficiency;adjusting the energy structure;enlarging the investment of energy Indus-try;fasting the reforming pace of energy industry;setting up the repertory system of petroleum in order to insure the energy safety;strengthening macroscopical control for supplying the safeguard of the energy sustainable development.