The Research Of The Forecasting Of Model Of Energy Supply And Demand And The Development Countermeasure Of Guangdong Province

As an indispensable material foundation of humans'living and developing, energy resource plays a vital role in both national and regional economic developments. In recent years, however, a number of Chinese provinces and cities have witnessed serious energy resource crisis because of the rapidly economic development. Case in point was the extremely cold weather in 2008.Since then, how to ensure the supply of regional energy resource has been concerned by local governments. Scientifically predicting future energy demand and supply of Guangdong province will help preparing rational strategies of energy development, promoting a rapid development of Guangdong's economy and building a harmonious society.This thesis analyses the current situation of energy consumption and supply in Guangdong province in sectors like energy resource distribution, self-supply and import, its total consumption and structure and industrial energy resource consumption as well. Also, this thesis points out existing problems of energy resources developing in Guangdong province.Then, by using models such as Trend prediction models,Grey system model,Gompertz curve model,Logistic curve model,Entropy-based combination forecasting model, this thesis predicts the total and component amount of energy supply and demand in Guangdong comprehensively.After the above prediction, this thesis analyses the balances of energy resource supply and demand. Targeting on energy supply and demand gap, this thesis proposes a solution: analyse the elasticity of substitution between energy resource and capital, the elasticity of substitution between energy varieties. Finally we raise an energy resource substitution proposal.At last, this thesis suggests future energy resource developing policy of Guangdong province, which including energy saving by lower per unit GDP energy consumption, strengthen energy resource cooperation either domestic or abroad, diversify its supply chain, make great effort to obtain technological advances and boost efficiency, adjust and optimize the structure of energy resource and constitute reasonable oil reserve system.