| Energy, the important material foundation of human society, plays an irreplaceable role in the development of the world’s economy and the improvement of people’s living standards. Ever since the reform and opening-up, China has made great achievement with its high speed in industrialization and urbanization, great enhancement in industrial structure and constant increase in economy. At the same time, with the sharp increased need in energy, China has become the biggest energy consumption country. The gap between energy supply and demand is getting bigger. China’s energy industry--with unreasonable energy structure and low energy efficiency inside, short of strategic reserve and dominated by the international energy market outside--is in trouble. All these factors have constrained China’s economic development.Therefore, the study on the relationship between the energy and the economic development is of great importance for the construction of sustainable way, with Chinese characteristics, of energy and economy.The dissertation makes empirical analysis of the relationship between the energy and the economic development in China from three aspects--the energy consumption, energy efficiency and energy price on the basis of analysis of the energy economics theory, China’s energy supply and the current situation of energy demand, through various quantitative methods. It also makes some prediction on China’s future energy demands, and proposes the countermeasures for China’s energy developmentFirst, the current situation of China’s energy supply is analyzed from the total reserves, average amount, production structure, resource distribution and supply structure. And the current situation of China’s energy demand is analyzed from total consumption, consumption per head, consumption structure, the degree of dependence on foreign supply. Then, on the basis of comparing China’s energy supply with demand, the problems and challenges that China’s energy development will face are analyzed.Second, the empirical analysis of the relationship between China’s energy consumption and economic growth, according to the model of economic growth under the constraint of energy, shows that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among China’s energy consumption, capital, labor and economic development, that China’s energy consumption has significant effects on the economic development, and that there is the causality from the energy consumption to the economy.Third, the influence factors of energy intensity is analyzed by the quintile regression method and LMDI. The influence factors of China’s energy intensity mainly include industrial structure, household consumption, FDI and energy consumption structure. While the energy price, being distorted because of the government regulation, does not function its market mechanism, and has no great effect on the energy intensity. And the empirical analysis of the relationship between the energy efficiency and economic growth is made by convergence model. It shows that, with the convergence of the difference level of economic development between regions, there is convergence of regional energy intensity.Fourth, the empirical analysis of the relationship between China’s energy price and economic development is made by granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. It shows that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them, and that there is the causality from the economic development to the energy price.Fifth, according to the influence factor of energy demand, through the scenario analysis, the three scenario of China’s future development-referring to China’s future development goals--are rationally predicted, and China’s energy demand from2010to2020is forecasted.Last, the future energy development strategies for China are proposed, that is, to push forward the measures of energy saving, to optimize the energy consumption structure, to establish and improve the petroleum reserve system, and to develop new energy actively. |
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