Research On The Forecast And Development Countermeasure Of The Energy Supply And Demand In Jilin Province

Energy is the materialistic foundation of the progress and development of human societyand also the productive factor affecting the economic growth.In addition,energy is a globaland strategic issue in the21st century as well as a critical and fundamental factor whichrelated to the development of provinces,the basic components of the state economy.Jilin is oneof the important traditional industrial base in Northeast of China.Along with theimplementation of revitalizing the traditional industrial base of Northeast China,industiralization and urbanization of Jilin pronince develop fast.But,Jinlin is a province thatis short of energy,the ratio of energy self-sufficiency is less than50%and the ratio of energyexternal dependence is rising year by year. In face of the problem that the contradictionbetween supply and demand of energy is serious,the phenomenon of low energy wasting iscommon and low energy efficiency is becoming more and more prominent,how to coordinatethe relationship of the energy,economy,society and environment and finding a way that theeconomy of Jilin province can progress and develop faster and better with low energyconsumption and less poluting the environment is an important problem to solve.According to the research need and the relationship between regional economicdevelopment with the supply and demand of the energy,the author uses system dynamicsmodel and the method of qualitative and quantitative analysis to predict and analyse the futuresupply and demand of the energy of Jilin.In the last,according to the predicted results,thepaper puts forward the countermeasures of the sustainable development between energy andeconomy.The paper maily had the following four research results:The first, this paper analysed the relationship between energy and the regional economicand summarized their law of development. What’s more, energy research into the provincelevel promotes the depth and breadth of energy research and is important to coordinate thedevelopment among the regional economic, energy and environment.The second,according to the analysis of the factors that include energy productioncapacity,the import condition and the new energy development,the paper calculated the futuresupply and demand of the energy of Jilin in the way of qualitative and quantittiveanalysis.The research results are significant to put forwad the energy development strategy ofJilin province, accord with regional economic development and without the blindness ofeconomic growth and energy utilization.The third,according to the research result,the author put forward some suggestion in thedevelopment of energy of Jilin over the next20years.On the basis of analysis in a variety offactors of affacting the energy demand,the author established the model including elementswhich are the speed of economic growth,industrial strcture,intensity of energy consumptionand CO2emission.Then the paper used the model to caculate the future energy demand.Thepaper not only provides the reliable basis for the development of energy policy of Jilinprovince,but also enriches the content of our country energy demand forecasting models.The forth,the paper established the prediction model of energy demand of Jilin probince.