Construction Project Contractor Selection Model Based On The Performance Prediction

Project construction is a kind of business which full of uncertainties and general risks. It is prevalent that the cost overrun, schedule delay, quality and safety problems, a lot of complains, claim for compensation and lawsuit, etc. existed in the project construction. To decrease these risks, selecting an appropriate contractor is a critical challenge which each project employer has to confront with. However, the severe competition in the construction market accompanying with the complexity, variety and nonstandard products of the construction project cause the difficulty of contractor selection. Traditional contractor selection methods normally depend on contractor's competence or strength. As we know, contractor's competence or strength only stands for the current status of contractors and the contractor's performance in the project construction could not be figured out from it affirmatively. Even though competence or strength associate with the contractor's performance, because of the strong influence of the project attribute and exterior environment to the construction, the project risks will greatly increase if the contractor's competence or strength is directly used to select contractors. Contractor's Project Performance Prediction (CPPP) integrate the contractor information, project information and exterior environment information;predict the performance of contractors in the planned project construction by means of prediction theory. CPPP will make the employer have a more reliable approach in the contractor selection activity. Simultaneously, contractor's project performance holds a same signification with the achieved degree of project objective, which presents a much more specific measure for the employer's contractor selection. This paper focused on the research of contractor's project performance prediction, established the Construction Project Contractor Selection Model Based on The Performance Prediction.This paper started from the systematic perspective of contractor and the building up of a systematic ideology of performance prediction. Through the systematic analysis for contractor, we got hold of the structure, characters and functions of contractor system, and the holisticemergence of contractor system. At the same time, this paper analyzed contractor's object system (contract project) attribute and its exterior environment, and the influence they impose on contractor selection. Furthermore, base on the enterprise competence theory we defined the concept of contractor's project competence, found the system of contractor's project competence, and put forward the evaluation index of contractor's project competence. Contractor's project performance is defined as the achieved degree of employer's admissible project objective. It is pointed that project objective is not merely the final output results, it run through the whole process of project construction as decision-making, biding, contract signing, planning, organizing, applying, managing and controlling, delivering and maintaining of the project. Project objective should be regarded as the integration of process and results. Base on above comprehension, this paper made out factors of construction project performance and gave a method of contractor's project performance evaluation.Base on above research, this paper analyzed the SCP relationship pattern among contractor's system structure, project competence and project performance. Using the systematology, competence theory and property right theory for the theoretical analysis, we are convinced of the dominant role of system structure and the relationship pattern between project competence and project performance in the SCP relationship structure. We also proved the validity and reliability of the relationship pattern between project competence and project performance by means of Structural Equation Modeling for the demonstration. Consequently, a contractor selection theory and approach base on CPPP was brought forward;its main progresses achieved are as follow:? Establish the contractor's project performance prediction model. With the use of the positive relationship pattern between the project competence and project performance, considering the project attributes and environment, we established the non-linear mapping correspondence between set of six functional group (project management competence, finance competence, technical competence, resource competence, project attribute and exterior environment) and project performance. Artificial neural network was used to fulfill this non-linear mapping correspondence, by which the relevant information collected from past completed project could be used to train and optimize the model, and gain an accurate prediction model. In the case that a certain sample database is built, it will be convenient to conduct the prediction.? Mobilize prediction principle synthetically to set up basic indexes of each functional group variable. Relativity principle, inertia principle and analogy principle are three key principles in prediction theory. Considering the development and change of things are impacted by itsinterior and exterior multi-factors, and the systematic feature of things in which all the factors are reciprocally related and interacted, the prediction principles should be mobilized synthetically in the prediction process. This paper set up the basic indexes according to the characters of functional group variables. In the basic indexes, there are relativity indexes that strongly relate to the project performance, inertia indexes that play speculating role and analogy indexes that exert, analogy impacts on the performance prediction. Therefore, the integrality and reliability would be guaranteed in the prediction.? Establish the Construction Project Contractor Selection Model Based on the Performance Prediction in accordance with the actual situation of China. By virtue of the analysis to the contractor selection practices, theories and approaches inside and outside China, we gained four kinds of key objective factors of contractor selection. Evaluate these four kinds of objective factors effectively through the procedures of prequalification, bid evaluation, sorting and selection. The planned project will be classified to simple project or complex project rely on the project attribute and exterior environment, subsequently goes into different procedure and uses different specification for the selection. Taking the project performance to be important cause of contractor selection, make the model more focusing on the process and output result of project construction, but not merely the promises of contractors. The contractor's project performance could provide employer the warranty of contractor selection accord with employer's expecting objective, and hereby select a proper contractor for the planned project.Hopefully this research achievement could contribute a new micro perspective in theory and ideology to biding management and policy making of Chinese government;offer a new approach to contractor selection practice for employers of all kind projects;and consequently promote the equity and efficiency system to a perfect level increasingly in construction market.