Research On The Risk Of Regional Innovation System

Since the 1990s, with the development of knowledge economy and global integration, regional innovative capability has been the key growth point of regional economy and the decisive factor that regions gain the competitive advantage. The concept of regional innovation system (RIS) has gained considerable attention from policy makers and academic researchers.RIS is typically understood to be a system to reinforce regional innovative capability which is based on interactions between different actors (firms, universities, organizations, research institutes, governmental institutions, etc) within the region. From the systemic point of view, RIS facilitates the flows of innovative resource which not only reinforce the innovative capability of different actors, but also constitute the most important process driving the evolution of the region.Because of the succeed demonstration effects of RIS, RIS has already evolved into a widely used analytical framework that generates the empirical foundation for innovation policy making. However, RIS is not all prolonged, its potential risks can't be ignored either. In resent years, although many literatures devote great attention to RIS, there is little work probing the risk of RIS. So the risk of RIS is a new subject of RIS which is worth studying and exploring.On the basis of consulting lots of literatures, this thesis researches the risk of RIS with the qualitative and quantitative analysis. Since the risks are various and complex, this thesis discusses the risks from the macro point of view. At first it classifies the risks into four types in terms of the position that the risks take place. Then it focuses on environmental risk, periodical risk, relational risk and risk on lack of impetus which are the key risks of every type. It is more pertinent to make some theoretical supports which are helpful to avoid risks and ensure sustainable development of RIS.Firstly, based on a theoretical overview of the concept of RIS, this thesis describes the basic principles of the risk of RIS, such as the definitions, connotations, characters and types.Secondly, this thesis analyses the risk factors of environment which induce RIS to decline. Based on the integration of AHP and fuzzy analysis methods, a new fuzzy evaluation approach is proposed which is used to evaluate environmental risk by the actors in RIS and policy makers.Thirdly, this thesis discusses the periodical risk of RIS. The periodical risk is identified and analyzed with building the RIS lifecycle model. Considering the fuzzy nature of the characters, a judgment modeling to the life cycle of RIS is developed based on fuzzy similarity scale. From the view of sustainable development, advices are introduced to prevent the decline of RIS.Fourthly, the relational risk between the actors of RIS is analyzed with game theory. The innovational network formation model is proposed in order to discuss the structure and character of the network. The analysis shows that the relational risk will destroy the connections and cooperations between the actors. It induces the cooperational network become loose, and even be hardly formed. RIS will decline because the cooperations are decrease and the flow of knowledge is blocked.Finally, this thesis researches the risk on the lack of impetus. It explores the connection of firm's profit and the R&D strategy choices because the firm's nature of pursuing profit is the key force that impetus the development of RIS. Based on the different periods of the product cycle, it models a static game that reflects the connection of profit, innovation and imitation. The analysis of the model reveals the factors that affect the incentive of RIS to innovate which are helpful to avoid the risk on the lack of impetus.