Study On Synthesized Economic Strength Appraising Method In Various Areas Of China

In order to comprehensively appraise the synthesized economicstrength and analyze the economic advantages and disadvantages invarious areas of China and provide a basis of making the economicpolicy, the thesis begins with synthesized economic strength and thenestablishes synthesized economic strength appraising index, andcovers the economic prospect in the future.The thesis follows the line of thought: beginning with thedefinition of synthesized economic strength and according to thecontent of appraising-index systems of comprehensive national power,competitive power and sustainable development and in the guide ofdeveloping economy theory, I establish thesynthesized-economic-strength-appraising-index system. Then, onthe basis of analyzing the constructive method of weight ofsynthesized index, the weight of synthesized index is to beestablished by means of stratified analyzing.The thesis adopts the way of the combination of comparativeanalyzing and concluded analyzing, theoretical analyzing andempirical analyzing, common research and creative research.Appraising index theory and weight theory have a long history, andthere were a lot of people who had inquired into this problem, whichprovided a good foundation for the writing of this thesis. On the basisof former research and in the light of concluding, summarizing aswell as analyzing previous achievements, this article attempts to findtheir common points and specific properties to seek the breach for thewriting of the thesis. There are a number of summaries of documentsin this thesis, and the way of comparative analyzing and concludeanalyzing are frequently used. I apply the theories in developingeconomy, national economic statistics theory and index theory toguide the establishment of synthesized-economic -strength-appraising-index system. I also use other theories and methods suchas weight theory and the principle of stratified analyzing method toestablish the synthesized appraising index. Then, on the basis of theabove work, I apply the statistics, issued by national statistical bureau publicly, to empirical analysis, and apply the index system to theestimate of synthesized economic strength in various areas of China.After all, I obtain an order of areas in China according to theirsynthesized economic strength. In the thesis, both the commonresearch and empirical analyzing method are emphasized. It is thefirst time that stratified analyzinghas been used to establish theweight of synthesized index and the appraising method has beenappraised, based on deeply exploring the nature of weight, theprinciple of objective-evaluate-weight and the common research intothe index theory. In order to examine the results of the research, I alsomake the analysis with the use of the statistics issued by nationalstatistical bureau, and make an order of areas by means ofquantitative methodThe context of this thesis is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is preface. In this chapter, I introduce thebackground and meaning of the research, the context, the thinkingand the method of research as well.The purpose of chapter 2 is to establish the synthesized economicstrength apprising index system, which contains review ofmultiple-quota-synthesized-appraising system, design and context ofsynthesized-economic-strength-appraising index system in variousareas of China. Firstly, by concluding and systematizing a largeamount of appraising-index system at home and abroad, and bymaking use of advantages of available appraising index, I draw aconclusion that synthesized economic strength can be reflected in twoaspects, the level and velocity of economic development. Secondly,by using the theory of developing economy, I discuss the innerfactors, which influence economic development. Thirdly, I establishsynthesized economic strength index system according to the theoryof social-index system.The chapter 3 focuses on research into the method of deciding theweight of the multiple-quota-synthesized-appraising-index. In thisframework, the chapter includes, the review of synthesized appraisingmethod, the establishment of synthesized appraising index,summarizing of weight theory, and the evaluate-weight principle ofstratified analyzing. After the research on the synthesized appraisingmethod, I establish synthesized appraising index, made up of indexes of level and speed of economic development, the ones that have beengot from linear weighted appraising model. The core of linearappraising model is to construct weight of corresponding index. Imake a research into several methods of constructing weight andanalyze the principle of several objective-evaluate-weight methods;however, I got a conclusion that there was not a perfect way ofconstructing weight. Thus, in my opinion, we should take advantageof stratified analyzing method to construct weight. Then I explore thestep of constructing weight in stratified analyzing method.Meanwhile, following train of thought of stratified analyzing methodand using the evaluate-weight theory of information differentiation, Idesign a new evaluate-weight method.In chapter 4, I explore empirical research into the method ofsynthesized economic strength appraising in various areas and makean order of the provinces according to their synthesized economicstrength. The first, I make use of and deal with data that is collectedand used for building multiple-quota-appraising-index system inchapter 2 above, then gain a standard database. The data ranges from1998 to 2002. As to velocity index, development speed has beenobtained by means of geometrical average, with the data rangedfrom1995 to 2002. The second, the Delphic technique has been usedto make a comparison among indexes which constitute index system.I evaluate indexes rank according to their extent of importance, onthe basis of which, I establish distinguished matrix. Then, I calculatethe latent root and eigenvector of distinguished matrix, theconsistency of the matrix examined. When the exam has passed, theeigenvector corresponding the maximum latent root has been united,and the weights of indexes of different kind can be gained. Then, theweights of these kinds should be calculated to get weight of everyindex. The third, making use of the built database above, I calculatethe indexes of both the level and speed of economic development ofevery province and integrate them into a synthesized index. Finally, Iapply the synthesized index to making order of the province from1998 to 2002. In addition, I also have an attempt to make an analysisempirically according to the method of deciding weight above, andgain achievement to some extent.The examine of the multiple-quota-synthesized-index is to discuss in chapter 5. I address my points from the necessity of examine of themultiple-quota-synthesized-index, and then analyze the category oferror and discuss the standard of appraising synthesized index. Inaddition, I make a comparison between synthesized-index appraisingmethod built in the thesis and the GDP per person appraising method,and draw a conclusion that the former one is better than the latter.Finally, the end of the thesis summarize the main conclusion andnew pointsThe main work of the thesis includes the following aspects:1, I put forward the meaning of the synthesized economic strength.Not only should the region's present economic strength beemphasized, but also the future economic development potentialshould be taken into consideration. The synthesized economicstrength should be a dynamic process rather than a static state.According to the meaning of synthesized economic strength, thesynthesized index for appraising various areas' synthesized economicstrength has been built.2. When setting up the appraising index system of synthesizedeconomical strength, putting forward the principle of establishingmultiple-quota-appraising system, which is an index system, begunwith the appraising purpose and made use of appraising theory. Fromthe definition of synthesized economic strength, the developingeconomy theory has been applied to analyze the chief factorsinfluencing an area's synthesized economic strength and to establishan index system to appraise synthesized economic strength.3, I explore into the forming mechanism of the synthesized-indexweight, and make a research about the relationship between theweight, the latent root as well as the eigenvector. Using the principleof stratified analyzing, I make a research into the ways combining thesubjective evaluate weight method with objective-evaluate-weightmethod. Associating with traditional weight theory, a new evaluateweight method from stratified analyzing method is born.4, the thesis uses the statistics in the statistical yearbook, whichissued by the national statistical bureau publicly,, and uses the way, inthis thesis to make demonstrations. Evaluate weight by means ofstratified analyzing method, and establish appraising index ofsynthesized economic strength, use this way to make a demonstration of 30 provinces in our country (except Tibet because of lack ofstatistical data. Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao are exceptions due tohistory). Then I build synthesized index of every province'ssynthesized economic strength, according to which I make an orderof the provinces. The time span is from 1998 to 2002.5, the necessity of analyzing appraising method is put forward. Ianalyze the reason why the error of appraising method produces andform a line of thought that using variance and standard variance rateestimates the appraising method. With the purpose of checking upthis method. I take the case of index of GDP per person and thesynthesized economic strength appraising index built in this thesisand concludes that the former index is not as good as the latter.