Study On The Impetus Mechanism And Regulating Strategy Of Agricultural Economic Growth In Xinjiang

Agriculture is the basic industry of Xinjiang economy, and its sustainable, stable and healthy growth plays an important role in enhancing development of Xinjiang economy and efficiently coping with"three-farm"problem. Sustainment is about long-running problem. Stableness has bearing on fluctuation. And health concerns quality and effect. Setting"to realize Xinjiang agriculture's sustainable, stable and healthy growth"to coral content, this research studies the impetus mechanism of agricultural economic growth (AEG) in Xinjiang, probes into the efficient way by which the mode of AGE should be rapidly transformed, and tries to establish pre-warning system, furthermore, puts efficient regulating tactics for agricultural economy in practice.Some conclusions are drawn from literature review and comparable analysis. First, there is plenty of achievement in economic growth field. The study of agricultural economic growth could help to radically probe into the source impetus for growth; Second, economic growth should not be made achievement at the expense of excessive expenditure. The transformation of growth is hard core of agriculture with distinguishing features and higher efficiency agriculture. Third, the impetus system should be formed from these impetus factors'interaction, which is the key to sustainable, stable and healthy AEG. Furthermore, regulating strategies based on the impetus system are necessary.After empirically studying of impetus mechanism, combined with statistical and econometric analysis, this thesis explains that such factors as regional difference, structure change, system transformation, technology progress, etc have different influence on Xinjiang's agricultural economic growth. The conclusion that the transformation of growth is temporally slowing down and its difference is spatially enlarging can be gotten from establishing of apprising index system of agricultural economic growth.and specific tactics should be come up with as to different prefecture in Xinjiang.We summary the feasible impetus mechanism as follows: to plan regional economy as a whole and offer technology and system as a guarantee; to attach most importance to regulation of agricultural structure; to advance agricultural scale economy, develop rural education in full sail and improve ecological environment; at the same time, to accelerate agricultural industrialization and consummate rural service system for reconciling the conflict between agricultural growth and farmers'income decrease.The study probes into various factors which influence agricultural economic growth and the fluctuating mechanism which is formed from these factors. After definiting the index of warning, probing into the source of warning, analyzing the sign of warning, and forcasting the degree of warning, this thesis attempts to establish pre-warning system to forcast and warn for cotton production and gross production of agricultural economy. According to the pre-warning system, suitable regulating system should be established and feasible counterplan should be introduced to avoid agricultural fluctuation in wider range. Through the multidimensional visual angle and in gradual sequence (regional gap, interal structure, endogenesis model, market condition, rural education, appraising system, pre-warning system), this thesis mainly solves three problems as follows: (1) what is the feasible power mechanism of AEG in Xinjiang for the present? (2) How to appraise the transformation of AGE in Xinjiang and promote it? (3) How to establish pre-warning system for AGE of Xinjiang and bring its regulating tactics into effect? Based on many experiment, improvement and test in empirical study, the research amends some methods and introduces something new in many aspects such as appraising system, pre-warning system,etc.