Study On Project Risk Management Of The Forestry Ecological Engineering In China

The present dissertation focuses on the theory and application of project risk management of the forestry ecological engineering (FEE) in China. Based on the general risk management approaches and theories, some basic theoretical problems, such as the concept, the features, the classification and the mathematical expression of the project risks, have been studied in the light of the special characteristics of FEE. The overall risk management idea of FEE has been put forward, which contains the entire process, the full content, the all-directional, the all-participated and the comprehensive measures of risk management. Considering the process-control system, the environment-monitoring system, the organization system, the management technology system and the mechanism system, the study has built a multi-dimensional FEE project risk management system. Also some strategies for bearing risk, avoiding risk, shifting risk and controlling losses have been discussed in detail. Through the above three levels of study, the research has formed a relatively complete theoretical system of FEE project risk management.In the dissertation, there are several models of FEE project risk management have been built. First of all, the FEE project risk identification model based on feature map has been built, which is object-oriented and uses four main methods: direct mapping, project mapping, discrete decomposition mapping, and group mapping to identify the FEE project risk more completely, more scientifically and more efficiently. Secondly, the FEE project risk evaluation"error back propagation (BP) neural network-fuzzy system"model has been built, which could solve the difficult problems caused by the FEE project risk characteristics of complex, nonlinear, and dynamic, as well as, makes the risk assessment more reasonablely. Thirdly, the monitoring and warning system based on the WEBGIS has been built, which could provide a good platform to monitor and forecast the FEE project risk. These three main models have formed a relatively complete system of risk management models. And it is not only a study in technology, but also an innovation in method.The research also do some empirical work take the natural forest protection project (NFPP) for instance. There are 26 data groups have been chose from nearly 46000 monitoring records in the past 4 years provided by the State Forestry Administration to be the samples. Then, they have been used to verify the proposed models in the dissertation by the means of computer programming based on the development platform provided by MatLab, fuzzy distribution and subject principles. On this basis, the research has identified and evaluated the project risk of NFPP, which also has accumulated experiences for further FEE project risk management.