The Research On Forestry Bio-energy Utilization And Its Industry Development In China

The research in the thesis focuses on the utilization of forestry bio-energy and the development of its industry in China. The thesis firstly talks about the background of forestry bio-energy utilization by analysising the trend of energy development in the world and introducing forestry bio-energy. In this part, the thesis holds that the traditional energy must be gradually replaced by new energy and the new energy is one of the most important approaches to solve the energy problem both in China and the world and discusses briefly the value chain of forestry bio-energy industry.Secondly, the thesis points out the most significant reasons to develop the foresty bio-energy industry: energy supply and demand and the enviroment pollution in China. The thesis describes the contradiction between the energy supply and demand, makes a forecast in Chinese energy by econometrics model and calculus equation and analysis the factors that lead to the deficiency in energy in China and the relation between forestry bio-energy and Chinese energy problem. The thesis also makes a forecast in Chinese environment pollution by Kuznetz theory and econometrics model and discusses the relationship between forestry bio-energy and environment pollution in China.Thirdly, the thesis looks for the main factors that influence the forestry bio-energy development: policy, resource, market and technology. In the policy factor, the thesis makes a discussion in the mechanism of energy policy and takes the forestry bio-energy generation as an example to design the outline of compulsory policy and its differences in every phrase based on the energy policy and its trend. In the resource factor, based on the quantity of the forestry resource and its potential in future, the thesis analysis the change in the mode of resource supply, puts forward that the principle resource supply will be from the energy forest and finds out the regions that have the priority to develop the forestry bio-energy industry. In the market factor, the energy market is divided into two parts. The thesis makes an example in woody coal and forecast the coal supply and demand in China by time series model. Furthermore, the thesis takes a rate in the development of woody coal market and analysis the potential demand in woody coal according to the results in observed regions. In the secondary energy market, the other part of the energy market, the thesis forecasts the power supply and demand in future and also takes a rate in the development of forestry bio-energy generation in Chinese regions. Moreover, the thesis holds the view that the current cost calculation system should be adjusted and analysis the variance in the competence of forestry bio-energy generation in different phrases. In the technology factor, the thesis discusses the cost influence by the technology and facility in accordance with the course of the material pre-treatment and production.Last but not the least, the research in this part focuses on the present development of the forestry bio-energy industry. With some cases in forestry bio-energy industry, the thesis makes a research on the competence of forestry bio-energy products and evaluates the whole case risk and many risk factors by the theory of risk fuzz evaluation and take some suggestions in the measurements that can reduce the whole risk rate. Additionally, since the forestry bio-energy products have no enough competence in energy market in the present phrase. The thesis erects the stationary game model and multi-target optimal model to quantitative the incentive policy in the constrict conditions...