Assessment And Early Warning Of Land-Use Change Ecological Security In Liaoning Province

Liaoning Province is a focused and major region of Revival Northeastern China strategy implementation in the 21st centry. But the fragile ecosystem has become the primary problem restricting the economic and societal development of Liaoning Province. Therefore, a system of regional economic and societal sustainable development must be built.For this reason, it is very significative to procee a land ecosystem security assessment and early warning research for an accurate and scientifical implementation of the strategy of Liaoning Province, and a management measure from government, an improvement of the ecological environment, and a guarantee of ecological security and sustainable development, and an effectual strategy of Revival Northeastern China.In this article, an ecological benefit of the service function assessment model, an analytic hierarchy process, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, an index evaluation method and a modified BP neural network model are used in assessment of Liaoning land ecological security and early warning research. Obtaining the following achievements:1. The backgrounds purpose and significance of Liaoning Provice land ecosystem security assessment and early warning reaearch are analyzed, the current situations of ecological security are systematically studied; a research method and a technology roadmap are given.2. Basic theories of ecological security assessment and early warning research are elaborated. The definition, meaning, property, content, significance, index system, assessment method and evaluation criteria of ecological security and early warning assessment are systematically studied in detail.3. With the temporal and spatial variation of land utilization and driving influence analysis and the causes of the problems, Liaoning Province land use variation trend are analyzed. With Constanza’s Ecosystem service assessment model, the ecosystem service values of Liaoning Province in 1980,1990,2000 and 2007 are calculated. The values from 1980 to 2007 are 89198.82*105 yuan、99422.82*105 yuan、113012.4*105yuan and 117746*105yuan.4. The index system of Liaoning Province land ecological security assessment is established. Analytic hierarchy process is used in determining of the weights of indexes. An assessment of Liaoning Province land ecological security proceeded. The degrees of security of the year 1980,1990,2000 and 2007 are 0.53,0.50,0.57 and 0.48, show that the security status during the study period are in the sensitive level. Furthermore separated assessments are proceeded for the 14 counties of Liaoning Province. The descending sorts of the years are:The year 1980:Dalian, Shenyang, Benxi, Huludao, Panjin, Anshan, Jinzhou, Yingkou, Liaoyang, Fushun, Fuxin, Dandong, Chaoyang, Tieling.The year 1990:Dalian, Benxi, Shenyang, Jinzhou, Panjin, Huludao, Anshan, Yingkou, Fushun, Dandong, Fuxin, Chaoyang, Liaoyang, Tieling.The year 2000:Dalian, Shenyang, Yingkou, Huludao, Benxi, Anshan, Fuxin, Panjin, Dandong, Jinzhou, Liaoyang, Fushun, Chaoyang, Tieling.The year 2007:Dalian, Shenyang, Huludao, Panjin, Anshan, Benxi, Yingkou, Chaoyang, Fushun, Jinzhou, Liaoyang, Fuxin, Dandong, Tieling.5. Liaoning Province land ecosystem security early warning assessment is studied. With the establishment of land ecosystem security and the degree system of early warning assessment and creation of fuzzy comprehensive evoluation model and the synthetical index method the degrees of land ecosystem security of Liaoning Province in the year 1980,1990, 2000 and 2007 are calculated. The results from the fuzzy comprehensive evoluation model are 0.59204,0.58991,0.59341 and 0.58923. Results from the synthetical index method are 0.44664,0.43104,0.62369 and 0.43474. Both of the results showed that the early warning statuses of land ecosystem security of Liaoning Province during the study period are in moderate level.6. To aim at the gradient descent method in standard BP neural network, improving the shortcoming of standard BP neural network method, with the results above, the degrees of land ecosystem security and early warning assessments of Liaoning province during the year of 2008-2020 are forecasted. It shows the degrees of land ecosystem security are increased but the early warning degrees of land ecosystem security are decreased. By the year of 2014 the degree of land ecosystem security of Liaoning province will reach slight safe level and the degree of early warning will be slight warning level. At the end of the article some controle policys are advised:(1)To practice the scientific concept of development, coordinating the development of the economy and the land utility; (2)Control growth and improve the quality of the population, and lighten the press of land; (3)Strengthen the control functions of land use planning.