Dynamic Analysis Of The Energy Economy And Study On The Energy Efficiency Level

Energy is the material basis for social development, which is also the main power source and important material source for the production activities of human society. There is an inextricably relationship between energy and economy. With the development of economic globalization, nearly all nations have a growing dependence to energy. And the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has affected the sustainable development strategy to different countries. Therefore, the research of energy economy has changed from static qualitative analysis to the aspects of both quantitative and dynamic. Aimed at the latest development trend of the energy economy, this paper focuses on the problems which include coordinated development of energy economy, dynamic impulse response, China's energy efficiency level and energy forecasting based on the energy economical theory and foundation of our own nation.The first, this dissertation recalls the development station of Chinese energy industry and then analysis the relationship between energy and economy. As a result, the"energy--economy"complex model is constructed based on ecological theory, which covers the field of the sustainable theory and recycling economy. And the coordinating degree of the complex system is studied quantitatively to test the correctness and practice.The second, there is unidirectional causality from China's economic growth to energy consumption by means of the method of Granger causality test since 1978. To deeply discuss the influence between energy and economy, this paper makes an positive analysis to solve how much the intensity is between these two macroeconomic variables using the impulse response function and variance decomposition.The third, the comparison between China and the developed countries in energy efficiency level is objective researched. At the same time, the paper makes a detailed study about China's energy consumption level, the industrial structure and energy intensity. Based on the time-varying parameter model, the paper innovatively makes an estimation of marginal energy efficiency of different energy resources including coal, oil and gas. The results will play a positive role for promoting our nation's energy structure reform and improving energy efficiency.The fourth, the dissertation respectively make use of grey forecasting, multiple regression and ARMA method to construct models depending on historical data of Chinese energy consumption. Then, the combination forecasting model of energy demand future by means of IOWA to allocate the weights is built up. And this kind of model is applied to forecast Chinese energy demand in following 20 years.Finally, based on the econometric analysis, the paper carried out our future policy studies from the two different perspectives, that is the tap new sources of supply and reduce consumption.