The Research On Dynamic Relationship Of Energy And Economic For Small Regional Aspects

Energy is the important material base for the subsistence and society developmentof human being. Since China adopted the reform and opening-up policy in late1978, thenational economy has developed rapidly, and the dependency of domestic economic onenergy has risen quickly. At the present time, China has become the second largest energyconsumption country in the world, and the total energy consumption of China account for11percent of the world. Therefore, the energy problem is paid more and more attention in oursociety.Currently, to the best of our knowledge, there is little study concern the energy problemin small areas in China, such as a small city, a county, a development zone and so on.Compare with the small area, the research concern the energy demand forecasting in largeareas in China developed early. The large areas equip with well experienced people and havecomplete historical data. The energy demand forecasting in small areas are characteristic ofsmall total energy demand and simple situation of energy consumption; but at the same time,the work of energy statistic in small area is started late, had little work experience, and lack ofskilled talents. Consequently, in many small areas in China, the situations of energyconsumption are not very clear and the history data of energy demand are scarce. Thissituation makes many past model and analytic approach is not suitable for small areas, whichis hard to analyze the energy problem in small area.According to the characteristics of energy problem in small areas and one developmentzone in Guangdong as an example, this paper research into the energy demand forecastingmodel and the energy and dynamic relationship of energy and economic in small area. Theaccurate analysis can provide scientific basis for energy policy, energy development planningin China and can show a realistic magnificence for the healthy and steady development ofenergy econometrics in China.Firstly, according to the characteristics of energy problem in small areas and thecharacteristic of individual model and hybrid model, an improved hybrid forecasting model isdeveloped based on the hybrid model of GPRM based on moving average optimization andMultiple linear regression model. This improved hybrid forecasting model is fullyconsideration of the characteristics of energy demand forecasting in small areas and differentinformation sources. Finally, we proved that the forecasting results of the hybrid model withhigher precision compared with each individual model.Secondly, using the VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition, this paper makes an positive analysis to solve how much the intensity is between theeconomic growth and the energy consumption in area. Further more, according to the uniqueindustrial structure in the example area, this paper studies the energy economic problem indifferent industrial.