Research Of Fluctuation Of Coal Price And Countermeasure

The coal is the iron and steel industry important crude fuel.The steel and iron produces can the fast growth,creates the coal resources to be intense,supply and demand contradictory day by day prominent,the price aggregate level rises unceasingly,the gradual undulation is big.The coal supply chain price constitution complex,the influence factor are very many,in chain each link,the coal price undulation,the railway transportation “the bottleneck”,factor influences and so on country industrial policy very is in particular big.Therefore, the research coal supply chain price undulates and forms the mechanism,has the important theory and the practical significance.This article to the coal supply chain price undulation question,separately from the qualitative analysis and the quota forecast,the simulation and optimized two aspects to conduct the system thorough research,proposed the corresponding countermeasure.The main research content is as follows:1st,separately from the supply chain entrance,the middle link and the export three aspects qualitative has analyzed the coal price undulation influence factor and the tendency,discussed the coal to supply the chain the price structure mechanism and the price undulation rule.2nd,the model balance idea branch customs station thought,established based on the SCOR model,has been able correctly to carry on the qualitative/quota quality synthetic evaluation to the coal supply chain operation achievements the target system,has constructed based on this target system coal supply chain price forecast model;Uses ARIMA,ARIMA and the neural network hybrid forecast method,the gray forecast the method separately carries on the forecast to the Wuhan Steel Corporation coal supply chain price undulation,has obtained the satisfactory result, has confirmed the coal supply chain target system and the coal supply chain price forecast model accuracy which establishes.3rd,the coal supply chain multiagent modeling and simulation research.In the structure coal supply chain supplier intelligence body,the purchasing agent intelligence body and other like production,the stock and so on some intelligent body model,these intelligent body had according to the market rule in the coal supply chain independent,the intelligence,rationally completes the coal transaction ability.Has realized the coal supply chain multiagent simulation prototype system in the REPAST platform,and take the Wuhan Steel Corporation coal supply chain simulation as the example,to and the coal supply chain multiagent simulation model and the multiagent simulation prototype system which establishes has carried on the test,the examination and the confirmation.The result indicated this article proposed multi-intelligent phantom accuracy.4th,the coal supply chain optimizes the strategy research.Established the supplier to choose the model and to study its solution algorithm,in satisfied under the synthesis purchase cost lowest premise,after the example confirmation,might obtain under the multi-variety coal supply environment the multi-supplier's most superior duty distribution.In the paper,the author will supply the chain system abstractly will be the structural model,to supplied the chain overall construction the reliability to carry on the theoretical analysis,obtained the supply chain system margin of safety computation road collection manifestation,and has given the netted supply chain margin of safety most alley collection computation model.The paper take the multi-raw material multi-product three level of supply chain as an example, has constructed the supply chain cost smallest margin of safety optimization model, finally supplies the chain through the confirmation lattice the example,has proven the supply chain system unit importance validity and the rationality.