| Natural resources are indispensable foundation and indemnification in socio-economic development. Without the sustainable utilization of natural resources, neither the sustainable development of the national economy, nor that of the society is possible. With the rapid development of our national economy since the Reform and Opening-up, the demands for natural resources have been increasing. In China there are two interactive causes that make the shortage of natural resources severer and severer: the limited supply of natural resources and unlimited demands for natural resources in economic growth. Our government meets this problem by taking saving resources as the basic national policy, bringing the establishment of resource-saving society into the"Eleventh Five-Year Plan". The government also requires the environment-friendly use of natural resources to actualize the ecological changes of economic activity. This undoubtedly increases the total amount of resources and promotes the resources carrying.Northeast China is rich in resources. It has a long history of resources development. In recent years, our government carries out the policies to revitalize the northeastern region, which stimulates the economic development in Northeast China effectively. At the same time, there is still a large gap between the northeastern region and the eastern part of our country at the level of economic development and the pace of development. Whether the resources of the northeastern region will guarantee the future economic growth has become a focus in the government and scholars'mind. This is exactly the issue studied in this paper.Under the guidance of sustainable development theory, ecological economics theory and systematic science theory, etc., this thesis focuses on the laws between the demands of northeast China's economic development for natural resources and the limited supply of natural resources. This paper investigates the resources carrying quantifying method and models by using multi-subject intersection approaches. It considers resources, population and regional development as a whole, fully reflects the basic characteristics of its comprehensiveness, macro scope, and integration. It recognizes the resources environment-- socio-economy compound ecosystem as the object of study, takes sustainable development as the target, and employs the method of fuzzy mathematical model and systematic analysis to calculate and analyze the carrying capacity of resources in Northeast China.Firstly, the thesis defines the indicator system of this study. The assessment of resources carrying is a multi-level and multi-objective compound system. The size of resources carrying reflects the balance among the economic system, resource system and social system. In order to show the multidimensional vector, it is imperative to use a set of multilevel indicator system. The evaluation system of resources carrying capacity directly reflects the land carrying capacity, water resources carrying capacity, forest resources carrying capacity, energy resources carrying capacity and mineral resources carrying capacity, etc. It is an important manifestation of carrying capacity of resources. It is a collection formed on certain principles with different attribute characters. These indicator sets possess the function to describe current situation of the resources carrying capacity. On the one hand, the evaluation system of resources carrying capacity should reflect the comprehensive resources carrying. On the other hand, it should indicate the differences among carrying capacities of different resources. Therefore, this thesis designs a general framework for the evaluation system of resources carrying capacity, including three layers: the goal layer, the criteria layer, and the indicator layer. The evaluation index mainly reflects the natural resources carrying, socio-economic carrying, and ecological carrying.Secondly, combined with socio-economic development goals in northeast region, this thesis employs fuzzy discriminating models to assess these multiple factors generally, so as to evaluate the regional carrying capacity of resources comprehensively. Considering the factors which influence resources carrying capacity are massive and multi-leveled, in order to avoid the difficulty of weight distribution, this paper adopts the following approaches to acquire the comprehensive evaluation of resources carrying capacity in Northeast China. First of all, this thesis divides the evaluation factors set into 3 subsets according to its resources attributes: land carrying capacity, water resources carrying capacity and other resources carrying capacity. Then, the paper adopts fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to assess each subset. Finally, the author employs multi-level fuzzy judgment to reassess the evaluation results of these three subsets. After careful calculation and analysis, the thesis obtains the comprehensive evaluation result of the resources carrying capacity in northeast China.As those research results indicate, the comprehensive evaluation result of water carrying capacity in northeast China is 0.333, the comprehensive evaluation results of land carrying capacity is 0.725. Therefore, water carrying capacity in northeast China is relatively weak, which is the limiting factors affect the socio-economic development in this region. Land carrying capacity in Northeast China is relatively strong, which can better support the socio-economic development in Northeast China. After assigning weight on land, water, and other resources in the light of layer balanced method, the author finds the comprehensive resources carrying capacity is 0.502. This result indicates that the comprehensive resources carrying capacity is relatively good.Thirdly, in order to analyze the relationship among resources carrying capacity, population, and socio-economic development in Northeast China, in subsequent chapters this paper manages to conduct dynamic analog simulation in the light of system dynamics. According to decomposition-coordination principle in system theory, the resources system in Northeast China consists of 3 subsystems: population, water, land resources subsystems. Each subsystem is formed by many elements, for instance, water resources subsystem includes agricultural water consumption, industrial water consumption, ecological water consumption, etc. All the components in this system interact and influence each other, so do subsystems. Through analyzing the causality among components, the article constructs a flow chart of dynamic feedback, also conducts analog simulation. The model boundary set in this paper in three Northeast Provinces. The time boundary is from 2006 to 2030. It takes the year of 2006 as the base period of simulation. It predicts the relationship among population, socio-economic development and resources carrying capacity in Northeast China from the year of 2010 to 2030, and predicts the future changes.The coordinative development of resources carrying capacity and economic growth is largely influenced by population growth rate, water ration, water duty of industry, industrial economic development level, etc. These parameters affect the system behavior and evolution trend. On the basis of the economic development in Northeast China, resource condition, planning target, etc., the author adjusts these important parameters of the above mentioned models. This article starts with four strategic points: population explosion, resource consumption, economic development and resources development. Different parameter combinations make different developing plans. Through a variety of adjustment and control experiment on developing plans, the article investigates the relationship among natural resources carrying capacity, population and economic development, as well as its evolution features. In this thesis Plan One is a conventional development model whose original parameters develop through inertia. Plan Two is a high-speed development model which takes economic development as the major issue. Plan Three is an economic development model which takes effective utilization of resources into consideration. Plan Four is a coordinative development model.These 4 different developing plans are based on different parameter combinations. After the adjustment and control experiment on each developing plan, Plan Four is the only one whose load factor of cultivated land resources is increasing year by year. In that plan, during the fixed time period, there isn't any problem of water resource shortage. Therefore, the result shows that Plan Four is more rational than the other three plans. In these four plans, land resource is always able to bear the population growth and socio-economic development in Northeast China. However, water resource shows different carrying in different schemes. Hence, in Northeast China, the"bottleneck"for sustainable development is how to achieve the optimal management, development and utilization of water resources effectively.Fourthly, this paper adopts the methods of relative synthetic carrying capacity of resources to make comparisons among carrying dynamic changes, among carrying differences of different regions in Northeast China. The thesis also compares the northeastern region with the eastern, central and western parts of China to conduct analyses. Compared with the whole nation, the southeastern region's relative carrying capacity of resources is in surplus status. The contribution ratio of natural resources to synthetic carrying capacity is above 50%, which indicates that it is mainly natural resources that support the relative synthetic carrying capacity of resources. The advantage of natural resource in Northeast China is significant. However, the carrying capacity of economic resources should be strengthened.There are regional differences within the northeastern area. As for relative carrying capacity of economic resources, the state in Liaoning Province is in surplus, while that of Jilin and Heilongjiang are in overloading status. These results indicate that economic development level in Liaoning is superior to the average level in Northeast China. As for relative carrying capacity of natural resources, the state in Heilongjiang is in surplus, the state of Jilin is in critical, while that of Liaoning is in overloading status. These results show that the possession quantity of natural resources is higher than the average level in Northeast China. After we compare the conditions in East, Central, West and Northeast China, we may get the following results. The relative carrying capacity of economic resources in West China is the strongest one. The overloading of economic resources is the most serious in the western part. These results indicate that the economic development level in the eastern part is the highest, while that of the western part is relatively weak. The overload of the natural resources in East China is serious, which shows that the natural resource base is weak there. At the meantime, in the central and western regions, the deficiency of natural resources is not enough to offset the integrated resource overload caused by economical underdevelopment.Finally, the author brings out some countermeasures to promote the resources carrying capacity, improve the ecological environment, and push forward the socio-economic sustainable development. The economic developmental strategies are formulated to guide the direction of socio-economic development, to adjust people's traditional mode of using natural resources. The strategies are also established to implement the concepts of the sustainable use of natural resources and the sustainability of management. The paper suggests to get rid of the one-sided blind pursuit of regional economic growth, ensure the setting of the goal of economic growth does not exceed the scope of the carrying capacity of natural resources. Northeast China should promote its carrying capacity of natural resources through developing circular economy, improving the efficiency of resource use, ameliorating the ecological environment, pushing forward industrial restructuring, and integrating regional resources, so as to achieve regional socio-economic sustainable development.
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