Comprehensive Evaluation And Prediction Of Carrying Capacity Of Coastal Resources And Environment In Tianjin Binhai New Area

With the development of human activities,environmental protection issues in the coastal zone have received more and more attention.With the rapid development of the marine economy,the coastal zone has always faced problems such as dense population,tight resources and serious pollution of the marine environment.The contradiction between population,resources and the environment has become a key factor restricting the development of the regional marine economy.Under this background,it has become an urgent need to carry out research on marine resources,environment and socioeconomic carrying capacity.This paper selects Tianjin Binhai New Area as an example for empirical analysis,establishes a coastal zone resource-environment-socioeconomic index system,and evaluates the coastal zone resource and environmental carrying capacity and internal carrying capacity level of the coastal zone from 2007 to 2017;applying system dynamics Methods The SD model was constructed to simulate the change trend of coastal zone resource and environmental carrying capacity in Binhai New Area in the next 10 years under two different scenarios,and to find the best solution to improve the coastal zone resource and environmental carrying capacity of Binhai New Area.The results show that: 1.The comprehensive value of the coastal zone's resource and environmental carrying capacity in the Binhai New Area is between 0.246-0.556.The early coastal zone's resource and environmental carrying capacity score is not high.Through comprehensive development,the bearing capacity status has improved significantly in recent years.Among them,the resource carrying capacity of the coastal zone has not changed much;the overall carrying capacity of the marine environment is on the rise,and it is consistent with the trend of the carrying capacity of the coastal zone resource and environment in Tianjin;the socio-economic carrying capacity is increasing year by year.2.According to the simulation results of the SD model,the resource development model is the best choice for the coastal zone resources and environment carrying capacity of the Binhai New Area.With the increasing supply of marine oil and gas resources and coastal zone resources such as coastal tourism,the carrying capacity of resources has been improved;with the discharge of industrial wastewater from the source being controlled and the improvement of sewage treatment technology,the environmental capacity of the coastal zone has continuously increased High;As the strength of the marine economy becomes stronger,the economic development gradually reduces its dependence on resource development,driving the improvement of the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the coastal zone of the entire Binhai New Area.This article puts forward suggestions for improving the carrying capacity of coastal zone resources and environment in the Binhai New Area.The Binhai New Area should rationally develop marine resources;reasonably coordinate the coastal industrial resources;actively develop coastal tourism;actively adjust industrial policies;raise environmental awareness,control pollution from the source;and strengthen population planning and management.