Research On The Temporal And Spatial Dynamics Of The Relative Carrying Capacity Of Resources In Xinjiang

With the rapid development of economy and science, people have gradually cognized that the resource is not inexhaustible in supply and always available for use. On the contrary, it has stronger vacancy, which is a restraint to economic growth. This article is concentrated on West Development strategy and study the relative carrying capacity of resources, trying to discuss the optimum development pattern of Xinjiang regional economic in geographical space on the basis of analyzing resources bearing capacity. The articles mainly study the relative carrying capacity of resources in Xinjiang in three aspects.Part one will analyses the space-time development change and difference on bearing capacity of relative resource in Xinjiang, finally, we have obtained the following conclusions: the relative carrying capacities of nature resources and integration resources in Xinjiang that exceed the actual population are surplus from 1988 to 2005, but the relative carrying capacity of economy resources is overloaded. In 2005, the relative carrying capacities of resources of Xinjiang at a lower level in 12 provinces of the western. On the other hand, the relative carrying capacity of resources that exceed the real population in the relative enough situation include Urumqi,Karamay,Shihezi,Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture ,Tacheng territory from 1988 to 2005, and the other states and cities are overloaded at varying degrees. Part two, firstly, analyses the spatial autocorrelation of the economic growth in Xinjiang province from 1988 to 2005, and we found that the most of the states and cities is still in the low-speed development state. According to the overall change of the four stages , Diffuse effect regions are mainly distributed in Urumqi and Turpan, which are both in north part of Xinjiang; except for Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture in the south part of Xinjiang, polarization effect areas are mainly distributed in Karamay, Shihezi City and Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture; transition areas are mainly distributed in Yili, Tacheng and Hami region; The low speed development areas are mainly distributed in Aksu, Kashi, Hotan region and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, which are in south part of Xinjiang, except for Altay region and Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. Secondly, this article analyze coupling relation between the change of the relative carrying capacity of resources and the succession of effect structure on regional economic growth in Xinjiang, the results indicate diffuse and polarization effect areas in Xinjiang are mainly distributed in the E regions of matching modes on the relative carrying capacity of resources. The regions of low speed development and the B regions of match mode on the relative carrying capacity of resources have a very good coupling. The part three use the Gray system model GM(l,l) to forecast 2010's development trend of coupling relation between the bearing capacity of relative resource and the succession of effect structure on region economy growth in Xinjiang, the results show that the harmonious degree between the relative carrying capacity of resources and the succession of effect structure on regional economic growth in Xinjiang at a low level. Meantime, the author bring forward development pattern of tree shape structure in Xinjiang according to forecasting result and the problem of econmic development.