Study On Early-Warning And Empirical Of Processed Agricultural Products' Quality Safety

Food safety problems of domestic and international has become the focus of attention. In recent years, with the international food safety grim situation, China's food safety accidents occurred frequently. The problems of processed agricultural products'quality safety management system have fully exposed in China. Chinese processed agricultural products'quality safety management should change manage mode from the current event management mode to advance management mode. Basing on this background, according to food safety basic theory, economics theory and economic early-warning basic theory, applying the method of systems research ,quantitative and qualitative analysis, comparison, combining theory and empirical research, processed agricultural products'quality safety early-warning was studied in this thesis. The purpose is, at the angle of macro management, to establish early-warning system, to find possible dangers of processed agricultural products'quality safety in China, to nip in the bud. The main research contents include the following aspects.The theory related processed agricultural products'quality safety early-warning is analyzed. At first, the paper defines related concepts. In related theory analysis, from the basic theories of food safety, the general development rule of processed agricultural products'quality safety is summarized. From the Angle of economics theory, processed agricultural products'quality safety has the attribute of credit article and public goods. Based on economic early-warning theory, this paper proposes the concept, principle and method of processed agricultural products'quality safety early-warning.From the purpose of clarifying early-warning meanings, the current of processed agricultural products'quality safety in our country is analyzed. The overall situation is following: the level of quality safety is being improved, but the overall situation is not optimistic. The characteristics of agricultural product processing development is detailed analysis .From the angle of management of quality safety ,the paper points out problems existing in agricultural product processing development of our country, and discusses the problems existing in the quality safety management.The influence factors of processed agricultural products'quality safety are analyzed.They are the warning source of processed agricultural products'quality safety. The influence factors are divided into endogenous and exogenous source according to the process control factors. The endogenous source includes: the level of materials safety, the level of adminicle use safety, the level of environmental hygiene management and the level of processing technology safety management.The exogenous source includes the level of national supervision, the level of consumer food safety consciousness and the level of agricultural product processing development. Every aspect includes various factors.From the analysis of warning elements, the index system of processed agricultural products'quality safety is studied. According to the statistics and analysis results of 101 expert consultation questionnaires about the index system, the idea index system is established. Then the idea index system (including 26 indexes) is adjusted into practical index system (including 26 indexes) basing on the principle of data's availability and quantification. The comprehensive index method is applied to calculate the index weight.The paper studies the early warning model of processed agricultural products'quality safety. The total warning degree evaluation model is established with Delphi method. 18 early-warning index forecasting models of practical index system are studied using time series smooth forecasting method and curve trend extrapolation method. The warning limits of 18 single indexes and comprehensive index are determined.Using the historical data, the paper does an empirical research on processed agricultural products'quality safety in our country. With the application curve estimation and exponential smoothing prediction model of SPSS17.0 software and combining qualitative analysis, the future status of of 18 indexes are predicted in a short term. The paper evaluates.warning situation of 18 single indexes and total warning degree from 2002 to 2007 and predicts the trend of 2008 and 2009.Finally, from the nation supervision, industry construction, science and technology support, information sharing and so on four four aspects, the paper proposes policy and suggestion to enhance our country's level of processed agricultural products'quality safety management.