Uncertain Environment, Flexible Planning Study Of The Regional Logistics Capability

Datum shows that a great deal of logistics planning in china has deviated from Chinese logistics reality now. The problem is caused from two aspects, one is that the logistics requirements are exaggerated; the other is that the practice of logistics planning lacks of logistics planning theory. Thus strengthening the research of logistics planning is an urgent task. Though we have some research results, but because of the complex of logistics system and the uncertainty of the logistics requirements in the future, some problems in the theory of logistics planning haven't been solved, and it would be discussed deeply.In fact, regional logistics system planning should be the same as regional capability logistics planning, and it shouldn't just be logistics park planning or logistics distribution planning; at the same time, because the goal of logistics planning is uncertain and the decision maker usually is vague to make a decision, so logistics capability planning is a multiobject and flexible decision problem. Because of these reasons, the thesis discussed the problem from two ways, one is from "logistics capability", and the other is from "flexible decision". The thesis aims at supplying theoretical guidance for the practice of logistics system planning.The thesis apply modern logistics theory, logistics system theory, uncertaininformation theory, blind number theory, modern mathematics theory and multiobject flexible decision theory, adopt theoretical methodology combined with practical methodology, quantity methodology combined with qualitative methodology. The contents are divided into four parts.The first part is literature review. Many literature related with the research topic are searched , including logistics capability, the theory of regional logistics, uncertain information and flexible decision, the author mastered the actuality of the research and this will be the basement of the following research;The second part illuminated the core concepts and some related theory. The thesis discussed the core concept including logistics capability , regional logistics capability and flexible decision of regional logistics, the new annotation are given; besides these, the theory of logistics system, blind number and flexible decision are illustrated, all these are the research basement of the thesis;The third part is the main part of the thesis. The contents include the elements of regional logistics capability; the model of evaluating regional logistics capability based on the theory of blind number; the relation between logistics requirements of regional logistics and logistics volume; the model for forecasting regional logistics requirement based on blind number and stepwise multivariate linear regression; the conceptual model of flexible decision on the planning of regional logistics capability and an example illustrating the conceptual model is given.The fourth part is the conclusion and the prospect of future research. Based on the conclusion of the thesis, the limitation of the research is pointed out, and the prospect of future research is put forward.The conclusion of the thesis includes the following:(1)The literature review indicates that we should pay more attention to the regional logistics capability planning, it is the first time to put forward the concept of regional logistics capability planning in the thesis, the thesis indicates that we should consider logistics planning from the way of logistics capability, and the essence of regional logistics is that supply right regional logistics capability to meet logistics requirements in the future, it is not just a planning of logistics parks or of logistics distribution centers.(2) Analyzed the elements of regional logistics capability based on the model of source view, the thesis thinks that regional logistics capability is consisted of task, elements source, structured source and the environment of the region. The task of the regional logistics capability is to reduce the logistics cost of region, improve the level of logistics service, meet the requirements of logistics for the development of regional economic and social; logistics capability which is formed from the elements includes transportation capability, warehouse capability, loading and carrying capability, package capability, process capability, distribute capability and dispose information capability; logistics capability which is formed from structured source includes coordinate capability, standard capability, innovative capability, flexible capability and measure capability; the environment factors of the regional includes geographic factor, the policy and law for logistics and the diathesis of people;(3)Stepwise multivariate regression model based on the theory of blind number is set up, the logistics requirements of regional is analyzed, and the model thinks that the indexes of analyzing regional logistics requirements should include value-index and weight-index, and the index system for forecasting the regional logistics requirements is given, by this model the result can be described by blind number along with the reliability for the interzone, thus it can supply evidence for the flexible decision for the flexible planning of regional logistics capability;(4)The model for evaluating regional logistics capability based on blind number is set up under uncertain information environment, the information of the expert is described by blind number, and the result is dived into five class as "very good ", "good", "common", "inferior", "very bad"; not only the total mark of the regional logistics capability can get from the model and the weak elements of logistics capability can be identified , thus we can decided which is the emphases deserve us to invest;(5) The conceptual model of flexible decision for the regional logistics capability is set up; and the object function, decision variable system and related constraint are set up too; the model allows decision maker to describe their willing in vague language and the constraint can modified from a certain arrange, by the way of alternant decision, the decision maker can choose a satisfied scenario; an example for illustrating the model is given;All conclusion from the thesis is a valuable consummating and supplement for the theory of logistics capability; all the models in the thesis can give guidance for the practice of regional logistics capability planning, and then the research has its theoretical and practice meaning .