Research On Mineral Rights Evaluation Based Of The Competitional Analysis

The fact that a mining rights evaluation (MRE) is usually less than the cost of its successful bidder, reveals fact that there may be defects in the methods of the MRE available or problem in its criterion. Epecially, the exporting price of iron ore from Australia increases yearly 71.5%,19%,16.5%,88.92% since 2005, the ratio of the 2008's price to the 2004's is 5.81:1,which shakes people's belief in the criterion of fair market valuation. Furthmore, the currently guidelines of the the MRE are also not supported by such facts as the long-term of mine business, the fluctuation character of minerals price and the like. To enhance the objectivity, rationality, fairness, scientificalness and veracity of the MRE, it is worthwhile facing the prblems and making up for the theoretic defects.To the questions revealed,this dissertation pays attention directly to analysizing the causes which bring about the systematic bias of the MRE and to developing a new method for the MRE accordingly, and not to improving the pre-existing methods by such way as corrected parameter. The focuses of the study are located to the overall evaluation of the MRE,and not to the individual evaluation as before. Beyond the seven business purposes of the MRE, the new method is aimed at the strategic business for mining industry.This dissertation researchs on MRE from the standpoint of economics. Normative research methods have the main application in analysizing the constitution,formation and confirmation of mineral resources valuation. Empirical research methods have their main application in the fluctuation of minerals price, the bias of the MRE and the like. This dissertation mostly applies statistic tools owing to the needs of overall analysis. Except for following general theory of mining economics, our theory roots in Marx's average returns on investment, competitive analysis and economical cirlulation theory.This dissertation's main contents include as follow:A overall evaluation method for MRE is proposed. The currently available methods of the MRE don't consider the influences of the period of mining industry and don't make clear the investment objectives, besides their accuracy being lower. Hawever, the length of the period of minerals'price is 28 years, the fluctuation of the price is wide, and the periodical synchronicity of all sors of minerals is obvious. This dissertation puts a method forward to the evaluation according to the criterion of capital yield convergence, based on Marx's average returns on investment, which is much suit with the characteristics of capital gain and mining business. The new method get the targeted value of capital gain by the way of competitive analysis, expected price used in calculation to suit with the characteristics of the long-term of mining business and to eliminate the systematic bias caused by time series wave of minerals's price. As an numerical calculation casus for iron ore on the basis of the criterion of capital yield convergence, the new method can discriminate the anomalies of its price, i.e.it can fix the range of its reasonable price. This demonstrates the rationality with the criterion of capital yield convergence to the MRE.This dissertation applies the methods of competitive analysis to evaluate mining rights. According to Porter's industry competition theory, it is of relative competitive advantage among industries interrelated, which is remarkably indicated by the capacity of obtaining benefits. This dissertation takes measuments and calculates the upper-lower limit of the targeted value of capital gain according to the targeted value of capital gain of industries interrelated. This dissertation also gives formulas with respectively to optimistic, cautious and average distinguished by the intensity difference of the industrial competition,and with its computational procedure and its parameters setting, applying the methods of competitive analysis in the MRE. This way much correspond with the actual state in evaluation, despite of losting some accuracy in numerical calculation, so the assessment result as the casus being of higher degree of its confidence.Some empirical conclutions are obtained such as 28 years cycle length of mining industry and wide fluctuation of its price. It demonstates that the length of their price period of crude oil and iron ore is 28 years and the related coefficient between them is equal to 90.25%. With regard to crude oil annual average price, the hit bottom width is 70%, the top 58%. The annual fluctuation range of oil price is changed from 16% to 70%, the average being 35.7% in recent 10 years. With regard to iron ore annual average price, the hit bottom width is 37%, the top 245%. The probablity is about 60% for the iron ore price off the expected price over 10%, with which we can understand that the current methods are indeterminative in normality condition. It is known by calculation that the value by the new method is 1.335-5.917 times to the traditional evaluation between 2004 and 2005, the calculated result in roughly keeping with the first fact arranged by the public auction data. This proves that the new methd is surely of explanation functions and referential meaning.In the meantime, some characteristics of mining business are induced. This author believes that research activities don't consider something as it stands, and the logic origin of research activity is't the realities of sduty object but its features induced. Owing to the fact that people do not pays enough attention to these features before, to some extent, this dissertation makes some up for it. The main features of mining business are such as the long-term, periodicity, wide amplitude for its price, large scale of investment, lag behind of economic period, oblqopoly competition, irreversibility, delayability, nondeterminacy, surroundings dependency and the like.