Analysis Of Agri-Resources Elements Flow In China's Grains Trade

China is bearing an extreme dearth of agricultural resources, and the drastic shortage of water and cultivated land resources and the effected food safety problems turned to be major restraining factors to the sustainable development of China. The self-evident in-destructive faith at any moment for guaranteeing food safety and balancing crops demand and production is basically to achieve self-sufficiency. Meanwhile, the national condition of large population and limited land urges the necessity for favorable import of overseas grains. Thus, the analysis of agricultural resources elements flow in grain foreign trade is of great theoretical constructive value and practical significance for saving agricultural resources and guaranteeing food safety in China.Guided by the related principles in international trade and comparative advantage law and integrated with factual situation of grain foreign trade and agri-resources utility in China, this paper conducted systematic research on virtual water, virtual land and virtual nutrition trade in grain foreign trade applying comprehensive methods of empirical and normative analysis, qualitative and quantitative research, economic and management research; it further illustrated confluence univariate and aggregate analysis on agri-resources elements flow comparative advantage and grain foreign trade construction from two variables of physical quantity and quantity of value; and conclusively proposed correspondent policy suggestions based on research findings of virtual resources theory and confluence analysis.Eight chapters of the paper are generated into three parts according to logic and structure, they are:Part I (chapter 1 to 2) diagramed research schema and founded theoretical basis. It focused on the illustration of topic selection, research aims and significance, completely and concretely reviewed the related research status home and abroad, diagramed the research schema, research methodology and major innovative work of the dissertation, pronounced scientifically the definition and features of virtual resources including virtual water, virtual land and virtual nutrition with normative analysis, and founded theoretical structure to the analysis of agricultural resources elements flow in grain foreign trade based on comparative advantage law and resources endowment principles.Part II (chapter 3 to 7), the keynote of the paper, is for fundamental and systematic analysis. Firstly, this part applied qualitative and quantitative systematic analysis over grain industry in China and the production and foreign trade of four major crops, summarized the utilizing situations and features of agri-resources elements including water, land and nutrition resources; furthermore, based on the confirmed virtual resources content per unit of the four major crops, the paper figured out the trade volume of virtual water, land and resources inherited in the foreign trade of the four major crops respectively and analyzed the contributive effects of the three virtual resources. To conclude, this part conducted confluence univariate and aggregate analysis on agri-resources elements flow comparative advantage and grain foreign trade construction from two variables of physical quantity and quantity of value founded by the analysis findings in chapter 3,4,5and 6.Part III(chapter 8) is to draw sound conclusion and propose countermeasures. From the theoretical analysis and empirical study above, the paper demonstrated that the grain foreign trade structure in China by far is conformable and reasonable integrated with the comparative advantage law of agriculture resources elements flow. Among them soybean, maize and rice boasted of conformable structure between their agri-resources elements flow and grain trade with their integration to be 80%, 86.67% and 86.67% respectively, while wheat encountered a low confluence structure of 26.67%. major research findings concluded include: firstly, the physical quantity grey reational analysis model suggested that the effect of virtual nutrition (0.8849) and virtual water (0.7001) trade volume to grain import are higher than that of virtual land (0.6778), and the effect to the export of virtual nutrition (0.9097), virtual land (0.7018) higher than that of virtual water (0.6766) . The model ultimately advocated the priority of virtual nutrition resources criterion in grain import and export in China. Secondly, the value quantity fixed effect intercept panel data model attained that the reasonable import and of soybean and export of rice, wheat and maize should be the grain trade guiding structure, and the unit foreign exchange-earning capacity of the virtual resources proclaimed more wheat (1732.26) and rice (1406.99) export should be undertaken than that of maize (449.50). Four concrete countermeasures were also recommended in the paper strictly following the research findings.