Risk Analysis And Management Of Modern Large Scale Coal To Chemical Project

Modern coal to chemical industry is very important to Chinese energy strategy due to the composition of Chinese fossil energy structure. Energy-saving, high efficient and low emission projects based on coal will make contribution to makeup crude oil and natural gas. In the future, modern coal to chemical industry will bloom in China. Large scale coal to chemical project needs the integration of technology, money, water resource and energy. In the same time, these projects will also impact the resources, environment, safety and community. It is necessary to carry out risk analysis and management in order to make investment decision. This dissertation make summary on the previous theories. Then IPRA, sensitivity analysis, work break down structure and risk break down tructure are carried out to identify risk factors and set up risk accessment system. In the same time Monte carlo simulation is also be used to evaluate project risk. For each key risk facor, detailed analysis and management methods are presented. In the end, a real case is studied to validate the study results.