A Research On Economic Carrying Capacity--Theory, Method And Application

To thoroughly apply the Scientific Outlook on Development, we must effectively transform economic growth into the path of comprehensive, balanced and sustainable development. The economy sustained rapid growth, but the extensive mode of economic growth is still primary at present. Although the extension development model has stimulated our country economy fast development, but because it is one kind take the high consumption, the high pollution as the price linear industrial model, of simultaneously also caused the resources critical shortage, the environment to worsen day by day, causes contradictions between the population system, the resources system, the environment system and economic system that is getting more and more prominent. Although the development of extensive mode has stimulated the rapid growth of economy, it is one kind of linear industrial model at the cost of high energy consumption and high pollution. It leads to serious shortage of resources and deterioration of environment day by day, and causes contradiction among the population system, the resource system, and the environment system and the economy system. Therefore, it is of great significance for China, a developing country with huge population, to achieve sustainable development of economy.Carrying capacity is the core of sustainable development, and the economy sustainable development is to develop in the scope allowed by Economic Carrying Capacity. Presently, the systemic and special theories and empirical studies relating to Economic Carrying Capacity have not appeared, so it is imminent to research into the theory and method of Economic Carrying Capacity.This dissertation consists of 6 chapters. It has adopted the composite method of academic analysis and practical research, and the composite method of system analysis, qualitative analysis, and quantitative analysis. The main content of this dissertation deals with the following four problems.Firstly, with the guidance for the thought of economy sustainable development, this dissertation has defined Economic Carrying Capacity from a modern system theory perspective and established the basic theory framework of Economic Carrying Capacity, including the characteristics and connotative meanings of Economic Carrying Capacity, the formation mechanism of Economic Carrying Capacity that is coupling mechanism of PREE complex system. This dissertation has established the principles and basic theory for designing the comprehensive evaluation indicator system, making an evaluation model and making suggestions of promoting the Economic Carrying Capacity.Secondly, according to the principles of scientificalness, objectivity, dynamic, system, comparability and so on, adopting the method of comprehensive analysis and expertise, the comprehensive evaluation indicator system of Economic Carrying Capacity which is made up of target, subsystem, sub-subsystem, variable indicator layer. The target layer is the comprehensive evaluation value of Economic Carrying Capacity. Subsystem is composed of the population system, the resources system, the environment system and economic system which is the high summary indicator. The sub-subsystem is composed of 11 summary indicators, such as population scale, natural resources, ecological environment, economic growth. Variable layer is composed of 55 specific indicators. It comprehensively reflects the main impact-factors of Economic Carrying Capacity.Thirdly, the Economic Carrying Capacity of Chinese 31 provinces has been clustered into six categories by usage of the dynamic Clustering Analysis model. The first category is Beijing and Shanghai. The second category includes Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Guangdong. The third category includes Guizhou, ShanxiGansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. The fourth category includes Shanxi and Inner Mongolia. The fifth category is Tibet. The last category includes other provinces. Finally, this dissertation has put forward a series of basic method and specific countermeasures to promote the provincial Economic Carrying Capacity.The fourth, this dissertation has evaluated the actual Economic Carrying Capacity level of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing with the Economic Carrying Capacity Index. While Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing have been lengthways compared, this dissertation has made use of combined weight making method that is based on AHP weight making method and coefficient of variation weight making method, and dynamically analyzed the trend of Economic Carrying Capacity, and then put forward for some policy proposals aimed at each municipalities directly under the Central Government about how to promote Economic Carrying Capacity. Subsequently, this dissertation horizontal compared the Economic Carrying Capacity level of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, by the fixed weigh of AHP.After the above study, there are the following opinions and conclusions:Firstly, the economy sustainable development has promoted the economic growth and the prosperity of human society while protecting of the environment and reasonably exploring and utilizing resources. The sustainable development is a kind of common development based on the coordination and interaction among the population system, the resources system, the environment system and economic system.Secondly, the economy sustainable development is the Carrying object of Economic Carrying Capacity, and the population system, the resources system, the environment system and economic system of PREE complex system are the carrier. The core of Economic Carrying Capacity study is the interaction relationship exits in PREE complex system. Economic Carrying Capacity has been coupled in the interrelations and interactions among the population system, the resources system, the environment system and economic system.Thirdly, it is it is proved to be reasonable that Chinese 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government, autonomous regions have been clustered into six categories based on the respective level of Economic Carrying Capacity.Lastly, this dissertation has established the model of Economic Carrying Capacity Index, and applied to the empirical research for Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing. Based on the result computed from the combined weight making method, this dissertation has drawn the conclusion that Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin have been in the medium level of Economic Carrying Capacity, Chongqing has been at a low level. According to the AHP weight making method, the level of Economic Carrying Capacity has ranked high to low: Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing. From the above, this dissertation has come to a conclusion that the level of Economic Carrying Capacity has gone hand in hand with the development of economic progress.This dissertation made the following contributions and innovations:Firstly, this dissertation has created the theory of Economic Carrying Capacity. Theorists and academia have not yet formed a special theory of Economic Carrying Capacity before this thesis. Although some experts and scholars have made scientific researches and explorations on Economic Carrying Capacity, neither the systematically theory nor relatively perfect the comprehensive evaluation indicator system of Economic Carrying Capacity has not formed. In this dissertation, the problem of Economic Carrying Capacity has been demonstrated in theoretical and applied multi-disciplinary knowledge including Population Resources and Environmental Economics, Sociology, Systems Sciences as well as Statistics to the theory of Economic Carrying Capacity.Secondly, this dissertation has designed a set of comprehensive evaluation indicator system of Economic Carrying Capacity. The indicator system includes 4 sub-systems,11 major elements and the 55 specific indicators.Thirdly, based on the weighted average quantitative values, this dissertation has synthesized the Economic Carrying Capacity Index, and then applied it to the comprehensive evaluation and ranking of Economic Carrying Capacity for Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing.Fourthly, this dissertation has explored the method of promoting the Chinese Economic Carrying Capacity, and made a series of suggestions. This is theoretical innovation as well as practice innovation.The research on Economic Carrying Capacity in this dissertation keeps ahead in the field of Economic Carrying Capacity. If someone else would like to make intensive research in the field of Economic Carrying Capacity, or direct at special project research on Economic Carrying Capacity, the research results in this dissertation are worth learning. In addition to this, the dissertation has corresponding reference valued for Chinese in adopting and implementing the plan of developing priority zones, and strategically researching regional development.