| Climate change has become a global concern problem. In order to address climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, low carbon development has become the consensus of the international community. Chinese government has committed to reduce its carbon intensity by 40%~45% over the period of 2005~2020 at the 2009 Copenhagen Summit, which become a national binding index target on the carbon mitigation. In 2011 the State Council issued the ―12th Five-Year(2011~2015) control the greenhouse gas emissions plan‖ and the allocated the target to the provincial level. Whether the regional carbon emission reduction targets can be achieved and how to achieve, it is very key important to the nation carbon emission reduction targets.The problem of carbon emission reduction involves many fields such as energy, economy, environment and politics, etc. Comprehensive assessment of carbon emission reduction issues need to be simulated by the energy,economy and environment model. The paper take the Guangdong Province as the research object, optimize the two regions GD_CGE model of Guangdong province with standard CGE model based on the general equilibrium theory. According to the characteristics of carbon emission reduction policies in Guangdong province, the paper set up 13 low-carbon policy scenarios to study the different carbon emission reduction policies influence on the environment, energy and economy to 2020.In this paper, we study the three levels problem of regional carbon emissions reduction in a progressive form. The first is how to distribute the regional carbon emissions reduction targets in the better way. The second is study the influence of carbon emission trading system(ETS) policy in high emission industries. At last, take electricity sector as the research object, the paper analysis the influence on the carbon emissions, energy and economic development with the integrated implementation of the low carbon policies, such as low-carbon energy policies, carbon emission trading and carbon restrictions policies, etc. in the power sector. The research results are as follows.Under the target of reducing its carbon intensity by 45% in Guangdong province by 2020, the study set up the business-as-usual scenario(BaU), CAP average scenario(CAP-ave) and CAP optimization scenario(CAP-opt) and compared the effect of two carbon reduction task allocation policies. By 2020, the total reduction emission amounts are 7050~7420 million tons in the two scenarios. The CAP-ave scenario is better on reducing the regional carbon intensity. The reduction cost is about 36~72 Yuan/ton in the CAP-opt scenario, lower than in the CAP-ave scenario. The GDP loss is lower in the CAP-opt scenario.Based on the total carbon emission control, the paper set four scenarios, the CAP optimization in four sectors scenario(CAP-opt-four), ETS optimization in four sectors scenario(CAP-opt-ETS), CAP history allocation in four sectors scenario(CAP-his) and ETS history allocation in four sectors scenario(ETS-his). The impacts of carbon restriction and carbon trading policies on regional carbon mitigation in four high emission industries of power, cement, steel & iron and petrochemical sectors are investigated. Both the carbon constraint and ETS policies have negative influence on the GDP, but the GDP loss of carbon mitigation could be lowered by ETS policy. By 2020, the total GDP loss is about 91 billion Yuan ~108 billion Yuan in the Guangdong province.The GDP loss is the largest in the steel & iron sector. The carbon price is 55 Yuan / ton CO2~84 Yuan / ton CO2 from 2015 to 2020.The negative impact of carbon restriction and ETS policy on the employment is the largest in the steel& iron sector. By 2020, the employment number decrease by 108thounds~114thounds people in the steel& iron sector. The ETS policy lowered the employment reduction because of the carbon constraint policy.Finally, the paper evaluate the effect of added low carbon policies such as renewable energy, natural gas, carbon constrain and ETS policies on the economic, energy products, and carbon price and carbon abatement cost in the power sector, and discuss the time of regional carbon peak, using six scenarios: the renewable energy scenario(RE),the renewable energy and natural gas scenario(RE-NG),CAP only scenario(CAP),ETS only scenario(ETS),CAP and RE-NG scenario(CAP-RE-NG),ETS and RE-NG scenario(ETS- RE- NG).The performance in the carbon mitigation is best in the CAP-RE-NG scenario, but these six policy scenarios cannot peak the carbon emissions in Guangdong Province before 2020. By 2020, CAP, ETS, CAP-RE-NG and ETS-RE-NG scenarios can complete the province’s carbon intensity decreased by 34% in 2010, respectively. The clean energy policy stimulates economic growth and lowers the GDP loss by carbon mitigation. In the ETS-RE-NG scenario, the carbon price fell to 11 Yuan / ton CO2 by 2020. Carbon constraint policy has weakened the local dependence on external coal and oil, and the clean energy development has a very significant role in improving the energy security of Guangdong Province. |
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