An Agent-based Modeling For Evolution Of Regional Struture In China

In this dissertation, on the basis of three natures which determine Chinese spatial heterogeneity, further analysis about the role of three natures on the regional development and evolution will be discussed in the point of view of evolutionary economic geography and agent-based modeling. Firstly, we will discuss the geographic features and the evolutionary process of three natures. Secondly, from the perspective of human-environment interactions, three natures will be considered as the bascial regional geographic environment. The theory and technology of agent-based modeling will be used to model the evolutionary process of the population and capital organization.The dissertation consists of seven chapters. The first chapter is about the overview of theory of geographical evolution and agent-based simulation in geography.The second and third chapter will study the characteristics and the evolutionary of three natures.From the fouth chapter to the sixth chapter, the theoretical framework, system analysis, simulation analysis of the agent-based modeling will be discussed. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and discussion.In the first chapter, the geographical phenomenons such as continuous innovation, uneven geographical development, variability and uncertainty of the environment have become the key issues which should be discussed. From the scope of geography, the study of the spatial and temporal variation has been from new classical static world to a dynamic world.at the same time, geographic system a typical complex giant one.In this chapter, based on the discussion of the theorical development process about geography information science and economic geography. The thought of geographical evolution theory and agent-based modeling will be mainly discussed to explain the spatial and temporal dynamics and complexity of geographical systems. And some research progress and the cases will be given in this chapter.In the second chapter, we mainly analyze the geographical factors which are closely related to the three industrial revolutions in the history of mainkind (the agricultural revolution, the industrial revolution and the information revolution).These geographic factors form three natures, the first nature plays an important role on the era of agriculture cavilation, the first and the second nature are meaningful for industrial cavilation, and three natures will have a great impact on the era of information revolution.Modeling method and data bases will be given in the chapter, Elevation, surface rough-fitness, water resources index, agricultural potential index,life climate index will consist of the first nature. Traffic convenience and financial index will consist of the second nature. Information index, college index and average education index will consist of the third nature.In the third chapter, by appropriate statistics and regression analysis, we get the spatial distribution of characteristic value and characteristic figure are of three natures. The first nature which determines the spatial lock of Chinese agriculture-----the Line of Qinling Mountain-Huaihe River and the Great Wall plays the leading role on the first industrial revolution (Agricultural revolution), When times transferred from the agricultural society to industrial society, the second nature which is composed of transportation and infrastructure increasingly contribute to the regional economic development. The original spatial lock was broken. The central cities locked the basic spatial structure. Center-Hinterland structure can be found in the region. The third nature promotes regional structural variation.The structure of Hub-Network is created. The path dependence of three natures can be observed significantly, which means the second nature is initially driven by the first nature, and the third nature is initially driven by the first natural and the second nature. In the process of regional evolution, Hu-Huanyong line which is a famous geographical boundary in China has not been broken. It becomes the basic lock of regional development in China.In the fourth chapter, three natures will be used as the geographical basis; the agent-based modeling framework of regional evolutionary will be developed with the technology of GIS and Agent. The spatio-temporal evolutionary process such as population growth and migration in the period of pre-industrial agricultural civilization will be modeled by the agent-based system of regional evolutionary in the first nature environment.The spatio-temporal evolutionary process such as population migration and capital transfer in the period of industrial civilization will be modeled by the agent-based system of regional evolutionary in the first and the second nature environment.The spatio-temporal evolutionary process such as human capital and material capital transfer in the period of information civilization will be modeled by the agent-based system of regional evolutionary in the first and three nature environment. The fifth chapter aims to make analysis on the software platform of geographical agent-based simulation environment derived from the theoretical framework proposed in the fourth chapter. By discussing theories of agent-oriented software engineering, the demand analysis of the system is carried out from the view of combining Map Objects (MO) and Agent technology to structure the platform regional evolution in three nature environment. From the need of geography research, properties and methods of agents will be discussed.The result will be the basement for the following analysis.The sixth chapter is the analysis results of system simulation.Through spatio-temporal evolution analysis of population in the first nature environment, we can find that Hu-Huanyong line, Qinling Mountains-Huaihe line and the the Great Wall are the spatial lockin the long term for Chinese agriculture society. After the two Opium War, due to the development of industrialization, the first nature cannot explain space-time evolution characteristics of population.New geographical factors are playing the role.Through spatio-temporal evolution analysis of population and capital organization in the first and second nature environment, we can find that traffic factor, as a new evolution of gene, will play an important role in regional evolution.Second nature mainly drive the non-agricultural economy.Through spatio-temporal evolution analysis of material capital and human capital in three natures environment. We can find the innovation effect of information industry, which bring the lock break of regional structure. New pattern of regional differentiation will appear.The seventh chapter is the conclusion and discussion of the dissertation.