Study On Evaluation Of Emergency Planning For Reservoir

About 3480 dams have failed in China until 2007. In order to induce the dam-break risk posed to economy and society, there is increasing interest in Chinese dam safety management. At one time or another, structural measures have been presented as the ultimate solution in dam safety management; however, they are frequently expensive and have undesirable consequences. On the other hand, non-structural measures are difficult to implement since they impinge on people’s rights. Nevertheless, their lower environment impact and cost usually benefit the community more. Wellestablished non-structural measures are today indispensable complements to structural engineering solutions.Emergency planning is an important part of risk management technologies and its fundamental purpose is to reduce dam risks by reducing downstream casualties and economic losses. With socio-economic development and dam reinforcement project implement, Chinese government pays great importance to emergency planning. In 2006, the Ministry of Water Resources issued the Announcement on Strengthening Dam Safety Management, which requires definitely establishing the emergency plan. However, for lack of scientific knowlegde and methodology, present emergency plans are usually made only based on experiences or by copying others as the consequences of many problems arisen such as weak operability and ineffective implementation. By evaluating the emergency plan, the flaws can be found and corrected to improve the implement effect.This paper divides the evaluation for the dam emergency plan into two stages, namely pre-evaluation and post-evaluation. This paper divides the evaluation for the dam emergency plan into two stages, namely pre-evaluation and post-evaluation. Taking Songbaishan Reservoir and Huaxi Reservoir as examples, this paper studies the dam-break impact severity degree and vulnerability to dam-break disasters for pre-evaluation of the emergency plan. Responsibility assignment for the system of emergency organization, feasibility and effectiveness are also studies for the post-evaluation of the emergency plan.It is necessary to analyze of emergency events consequences during emergency planning for the reservoir. The dam-break influences could be analyzed and evaluated based on severity degree and vulnerability. Dam-break impact severity degree assessment is to analyze the influence of dam-break flood and an important part of dam risk management. Vulnerability evaluation focuses on affected areas’sensitivity and recoverability etc. The index system of dam-break impact severity degree and criteria for evaluation are built, and an assessment model based on attribute theory is established. Based on these, this paper analyzes the dam-break flood disaster system and presents a quantitative method for evaluating vulnerability of dam-break disasters according to data envelopment analysis method.The system of emergency organization in the emergency plan is consisted of many emergency departments to participate in the process of emergency. However, vague division of responsibility could extremely affect the efficiency of emergency action, sometimes even make its failure. The responsibility matrix technique, developed from project management, is introduced in the responsibility division of emergency action. The responsibility matrix and evaluation criteria about dam emergency procedures and emergency personnel are established and an example is given finally.Feasibility is the basic requirement of the emergency plan which influences directly the implementation effects. Whether emergency planning is feasible is not known, and cannot be entirely judged by drilling. To assess feasibility of emergency planning of reservoir dam, this paper discusses the guiding principle of construction the feasibility evaluation index systems and designs an index system framework preliminarily which includes three levels:aim, standard and index. After determining the assessment methods such as the method of index number, the paper chooses an example to evaluate its feasibility. Its aim is to provide reference for the formulation and assessment of feasible emergency planning for emergent events of reservoir.Effectiveness of the emergency plan is defined as the ability of a feasible emergency plan to achieve its expectated goal by taking some emergency measures when emergency occurs, or the degree of match to the expected goals during emergency process. If the expectation target is achieved, the emergency plan is regarded to be effective, otherwise ineffective. The paper proposed a effectiveness evaluation method for the dam emergency plan by the fault tree analysis (FTA). Simulation of evaculation process is very important. Though emergency events may initiate a lot of results such as dam break or water pollution, this paper only focuses on dam breaking to evaluate the effectiveness of emergency evacuation plans. It simulates the best evacuation routes and time of flooded residential points in research area assisted by GIS, and analyses implementation effect of the emergency plan under dam-breaking situation, namely mainly evaluates whether emergency plan can reach the expected target of risk management in aspect of emergency evacuation.