| With the rapid social and economic development and increasingly improved level of urbanization and living standard around the area of Henhe River basin, the shortage of water resources in Hunhe River basin has been getting serious, turning into a major restriction factor confining the regional social and economic development. To ensure the fast and stable regional social and economic development and achieve sustainable development of human society, a comprehensive and systematic assessment and evaluation should be carried out on the condition of water resources, the social and economic situation and water resources carrying capacity of Hunhe River basin.The study took Hunhe River Basin as the research object. Parameters such as coefficient of nonuniformity, concentration ratio and measures including linear regression, anomaly accumulation and Wavelet analysis were used to analyze the water resources condition of Hunhe River Basin. Analysis methods such as correlation analysis, decoupling analysis and Kuznets hypothesis were applied to decipher the social and economic development of Hunhe River Basin. Then, ecological footprint method was used to set up water resources account and build up the calculation model for calculating the water resources ecological footprint and water resources carrying capacity of Hunhe River basin. Based on the calculation and analysis results, further analysis was conducted to investigate the evolution law of deficit and surplus in water resources carrying capacity of Hunhe River basin and the main research conclusions are as follows:(1) Under the new situation, the concept of water resources carrying capacity should be emphasized on the influence of human factors on water resources, water ccyle (interbasin water transfer) and social and economic system. It also emphasizes the importance of the human factors to optimize the water resources in improving water resources carrying capacity. Based on this, the thesis attempted to perfect the concept of water resources carrying capacity in the new situation.(2) In Hunhe River Basin, the precipitation and runoff mainly concentrate on July to August. The precipitation happened more in July and the runoff more in August. The degree of uneven distribution of rainfall was larger in the upstream than it was in the downstream within each year, and the distribution of runoff is almost uneven in the downstream within each year. Compared with runoff, the during-the-year distribution of precipitation was uneven. The inter-annual precipitation and runoff showed the same trend of consistent decline, putting on a generally same change cycle.In the last 20 years, the peak of precipitation and runoff appeared in 1995, in 2005 and 2010.(3) Since 1992, with the second industry turning into the pillar industry, the GDP growth in Hunhe Riven Basin has been continuing to grow. As there was a small correlation between the water consumption and industrial structure in Hunhe River Basin, so its GDP growth was not largely contingent upon the water consumption. The decoupling analysis further proved that the GDP growth in Hunhe River Basin has small dependence on the amount of water consumed, but there still existed dependence to some extent. According to the "Kuznets curve" analysis, in Hunhe River Basin, the water consumption per capita and the GDP growth overall per capita followed the trend of "Kuznets curve" in certain forms. The fitting results showed that the consumption of water for agriculture remained stable with a slight decline and industrial water consumption continues to go down, so there is a dependence relationship between domestic water consumption and economic development to a certain extent.(4) After dividing the water resources by flood season and non-flood season and deducting ecological water demand in river channel using Tennant method according to respectively the non-flood season and flood season, the model for water resources carrying capacity of Hunhe River basin was established and it was found that the average yield of water resources in the Hunhe River Basin was 2507 m3/hm2, the balance factor of water resources was 5.19, and the output factor of water resources was 0.8510.(5) It has been found in the research that the water resources carrying capacity calculated by the model for measuring the water resource carrying capacity was higher than that calculated using the annual total water resources. Since 1992, except for the slight increase in Fushun, Shenyang, Anshan, Liaoyang and Tieling have all experienced the trend of decline. Of all different industries of water resources ecological footprint, the proportion of the agricultural water ecological footprint ranked the highest being more than 50% of the total ecological footprint. That shows that the utilization efficiency of agricultural water resources is not high in Hun River Watershed. The change trend of the water resources ecological carrying capacity is consistent with and that of the runoff with the peak appearing in 1995,2010 and 2005. The water resources carrying capacity of the city of Fushun is higher than other cities in the past years, while Shenyang ranked relatively low. Since 1992, Shenyang, Anshan, Liaoyang and Tieling, the four cities have been generally in the lack of water resources and only Fushun has enjoyed ecological surplus of water resources. The top-down ranking of five cities for the degree of the ecological deficit of water resources was Liaoyang, Shenyang, Tieling, Anshan and Fushun. Therefore, improving the efficiency of agricultural water is a key to achieving sustainable supply of water resources in Hunhe River Basin. |
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