Study On Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Yili River Valley Based On Ecological Footprint Theory

Water resource is an important basic resource for the survival and development of human,and it is of great significance to economic and social development.China is a water shortage country.Especially in arid and semi-arid area of Northwest China,which lies inland and has scarce rainfall and low utilized water resources.The ecological environment being fragile,the shortage of water resources caused by unreasonable use of water resources and the destruction of ecological environment have become the bottleneck of sustainable development.Xinjiang Yili river valley is located in the arid and semi-arid continental hinterland of China.But how to accurately grasp the development and utilization of water resources is rather important.The research on water resources carrying capacity also has theoretical and practical significance in scientific and rational development and utilization of local water resources,economic development,environmental protection,ecological balance and harmony between human beings and the nature.This paper used ecological footprint calculation model to calculate Yili valley ecological footprint of water resources,ecological deficit and water resources carrying capacity.Combined with the actual situation,using grey forecasting model to forecast the water resources carrying capacity of Yili valley in area planning,the conclusion is following:(1)During 2005-2014,the total ecological footprint of water resources in Yili river valley is in a rising trend.The ecological footprint of water production accounted for more than 95% of the total water resources ecological footprint.The first industrial ecological footprint of water production accounted for more than 95%.During 2005-2014,the Yili River Valley Water Resources is in a surplus and there are no deficit.(2)Water resources carrying capacity from large to small order is Zhaosu County,Nilka County,Turks County,Xinyuan County,Huocheng County,Yining County,Qapqal county,Gongliu County,Yining city.During the period of 2005-2014,the carrying capacity of water resources in Yili River Valley cities showed a downward trend,and the development potential gradually decreased.The water resource load index is the highest in Yining City,which belongs to the first class;the load index is the smallest county in Zhaosu,the Turks and Nilka County,which belongs to the V-grade;Yining County,the county police,Huocheng county and Gongliu County load index belongs to grade III or IV.(3)By 2020,under the different conditions of the Yili River Basin,the water resources carrying population and GDP are much larger than the predicted population and GDP scale,which is within the range of carrying capacity.By 2030,in the low growth,medium growth and planning conditions,the Yili River Valley water resources can carry the population size and GDP,which is also much larger than the number of predicted population and GDP scale.However,in the high growth rate,although the number of people carrying the population is still greater than the number of projections,but the carrying capacity of GDP has been less than the size of the predicted GDP.(4)In order to develop and utilize water resources better in Yili River Valley,this paper gave scientific suggestions from four aspects: resource utilization,social structure,engineering technology and administration.