Research On The Methods For Planning Of Emergency Shelter And Its Application

With wide recognition of the importance of emergency shelter to urban and rural security and sustainable development, construction of the emergency shelter begins to develop on a large scale from the preliminary demonstration and pilot. But the planning of the emergency shelters has not yet formed the mature theoretical framework and technical methods. Some vital and difficult problems, such as the emergency shelter planning standards of villages and small towns, location suitability evaluation, layout optimization and division of responsibility area are not fully resolved, which has become the bottleneck of the emergency shelter construction. In this paper, using the basic theory and method of the disaster prevention and mitigation engineering, location selection of public facilities, geographical information system, decision support system and emergency management, the author has made an in-depth and systematic analysis, and obtained some research results of scientific significance and application value.The theoretical basis of villages and small towns emergency shelter planning in China is very weak, the existing city planning standards are not instructional enough for rural areas, and the planning index from the limited research in this field is not applicable enough. This paper puts forward the classification of emergency shelter system in villages and small towns, defining the scale of each kind, effective shelter area, responsibility scope, emergency facilities configuration, and classification of emergency road and effective width and other technical indexes. The results of the planning instances show that the technology index has better applicability. It is the initial formation of the technical index system of emergency shelter planning in villages and small towns, the relevant research results have been incorporated into the national standard “Provisions for Design Code of Disasters Mitigation Emergency Congregate Shelter”.The traditional evaluation methods are too complicated to quantitatively evaluate the merits and demerits of the candidate emergency shelters. To solve the problem of the suitability evaluation methods of shelter location, the paper studies the suitability evaluation for resident emergency congregate shelter, which is the vital section of emergency shelter system, constructs the suitability evaluation index system and provides the evaluation criterion. With the aid of the ideal point in TOPSIS method, the paper has established location suitability evaluation model based on partial known information about attribute weights. To the target of minimizing of deviation between each scheme and negative ideal point, the author takes partial information of attribute weights as constraint conditions to calculate index weights. Compared the instances calculation results with the present models, the suitability of the model to the factual situation, the solution of the model reduces the risk of decision-making and solving simple. So it can assist planner in decision making and provides reference for shelter transformation.The existing optimization models of emergency shelter have the problems of solving difficult, fail to take enough constraint condition into consideration and inappropriate in responsibility division. To decide “where and how much the construction of emergency shelters with the lowest cost”, in this paper, the author has put forward the resident emergency congregate shelter layout optimization and division of responsibility area model based on the combination of the improved the location set covering model and the P-median model, in order to cover all the need areas with shelters at the least number and the minimum distance from demand zone to the designated place, and considering the constraints of current standards and actual situation. Through the LINGO software, the number of shelters, location and the division of responsibility areas are calculated step by step. Compared the calculation results with the instances of the present model, so it is simpler, more efficient in solving, more applicable and reasonable in division of responsibility areas, which is beneficial to improve the efficiency of emergency evacuation system.Presently there is not yet an efficient planning method which can solve shelter site evaluation, layout optimization and division of responsibility areas problems at the same time. Using location suitability evaluation index system and evaluation criterion in this paper, the author has established a comprehensive model of location evaluation, layout optimization and the division of responsibility areas based on objective programming, and tackled the difficulty of arriving at optimal solution in polynomials through the improved particle swarm optimization. Compared the calculation results with the instances of the present models, it is concluded that the model can be more applicable and provides more suitability in the emergency shelter selected. The comprehensive model in the paper, for the first time, has provided an efficient package solution in location evaluation, layout optimization and the division of responsibility areas.The present decision support systems of shelter planning have not achieved the efficient integration of mathematic model and algorithms with GIS spatial data support function. In this paper, taking ArcGIS10 as development platform and integration of a series of planning models and algorithms, the author has designed and developed a decision support system that can be universally applied in shelter planning through C# programming language. The system has achieved the store, inquiry and edition of evacuation and rescue information, candidate shelter evaluation, layout optimization and division of responsibility areas, and the visible demonstration of the planning results. For the first time, decision support system of emergency shelter planning in this paper efficiently couple the GIS spatial analysis function with the shelter planning models and the solution algorithms. It improved the processing capacity and quality of model solving ability achieved through GIS technology, providing a reliable decision support platform for emergency shelter planning.Taking Qianan in Hebei Province as an example, using the planning technical indexes, planning methods and decision support system discussed in this paper, the author has put forward the shelter system planning programs. In this way, the author has validated the applicability of technical indexes and planning methods, and also provided a demonstration case for planning emergency shelters in villages and small towns.