Study On Suitability Evaluation Of Urban Emergency Shelter Based On System Dynamics

With the acceleration of urbanization,urban scale and population density are increasing.Once disaster occurs,it will pose a serious threat to the life and property safety of urban residents.The emergence of emergency shelters can appropriately reduce the losses caused by urban disasters.However,in order to adapt to the fast pace of urban development,some emergency shelters that have been built often have a series of problems,such as the daily use function of the place and the function of disaster prevention and relief can not be well combined,and the place management is not in place,refuge facilities can not meet the needs of the urban refuge crowd.Based on this,this paper introduces the urgency of suitability exploration for the emergency shelters that have been built and put into use,uses the method of system dynamics to identify and evaluate the suitability indicators of emergency shelters from the perspective of the system,and then proposes relevant appropriate level strategies to provide reference for the planning and construction of emergency shelters.First of all,this paper summarizes the suitability studies of relevant emergency refuge places at home and abroad.On the basis of extensive literature reading and reference to relevant standards,the suitability of emergency refuge places is analyzed and discussed from five aspects: safety,accessibility,resource support,emergency evacuation capacity and emergency management capacity,and the index is screened by expert consultation method.Finally,a more reasonable evaluation index system of emergency shelter suitability was established.Secondly,the method of system dynamics and Vensim software were used to establish the suitability model of emergency refuge place.The suitability system of emergency refuge place was divided into safety subsystem,accessibility subsystem,resource guarantee subsystem,emergency evacuation subsystem and emergency management subsystem,and the causality diagram and stock flow diagram were constructed.From the perspective of the system,it can be found that the target system is affected by the cross action of different factors,and each subsystem has a certain conduction relationship,which directly or indirectly affects the suitability level of emergency shelter.In order to test and judge the rationality of the model,the system dynamics model is tested and the results are analyzed.The test results are good,indicating that the constructed model meets the actual needs.Finally,by assigning values to experts,the combination of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method was used to assign weights to each index,and the system dynamics equation was constructed.Then,the appropriate situation of the emergency refuge in X urban area was simulated by combining with the emergency refuge in X urban area.From the simulation results,the overall suitability level of emergency refuge in X urban area showed a stable rising trend.Using the method of single factor variation simulation to simulate each subsystem,it is found that emergency management ability has the greatest impact on the suitability of emergency refuge,followed by resource support and safety.Further,by adjusting the variable parameters of each index of emergency management,the change curve of the suitability of emergency refuge places under different schemes is simulated.It can be concluded that improving emergency management ability through emergency drill has the greatest impact on the suitability of emergency refuge places.Based on the simulation results,measures and suggestions are proposed to improve the suitability level of urban emergency refuge places.The research of this paper provides an effective research idea for improving the suitability level of emergency refuge places and enriching the suitability evaluation research of emergency refuge places,and also provides a theoretical basis for further research in the future.