Research On Road Traffic Emergency Capability And Risk Assessment Under The Perspective Of Vulnerability

Urban and regional road traffic are facing more car, single traffic mode, simple traffictransportation network structure, lagging performance etc, which make traffic problemssuch as the contradiction between supply and demand increasingly prominent. The situationis difficult to be contained in a short time, once a major emergency happens, as thevulnerability of traffic network, will bring adverse effect to the city disaster reduction, reliefand regional emergency rescue work, which may even cause some degree of social harm.Traffic problem has become a very thorny issue in front of the traffic administrativedepartment, while traffic emergency management under the condition of sudden disastershas become a daunting challenge facing our road traffic system. Emergency road traffic isan important of urban public emergency management system, which makes as a conditionprecedent to emergency rescue activities carried out smoothly. Strengthening theconstruction of road traffic emergency management can improve emergency responsecapabilities, saving rescue time; effectively reduce the huge casualties and economic lossescaused by unexpected events, weakening the impact of emergencies and loss of human andsociety. In this context, the factors mechanism of road traffic emergency, the frameworkand structure model are thorough researched.The common characteristics and mechanism of road traffic emergency managementsystem has been studied systematically, expounded the function mechanism of road trafficemergency management system, describes the brittleness and resistance, to focus on "whystudy"; Then, the structural relationship between various factors is studied withInterpretive Structural Model (ISM), in view of analyzing the influence factors of roadtraffic emergency management system, to demonstrate "what factors influence emergencymanagement system"; Again, the corresponding evaluation model and measures has beenconstructed, analyzes how "fractal"; Finally, with the two dimensions into risk system, riskmodels is built and related countermeasures is designed to withstand a sudden event risk ofroad traffic, improve emergency response capabilities, to realize "how to solve ".Firstly, from the system point of view road traffic emergency management frameworkmodel has been put forward, which systematically reveals the mechanism of road trafficemergency management system. From dimension of time, logic and knowledge, the three-dimensional structure of road traffic emergency management system model has beendesigned, time dimension as the main line, road traffic incidents emergency managementsystem has been constructed based on the life cycle, meanwhile, the elements of functionaland knowledge dimension throughout the analysis and construction of the whole system,the analysis of the structure model from different sides and perspectives showed thecomposition of the emergency management system and the relationship between eachfactor; From vulnerability dimension to conduct research to the road traffic incident, is thedeepening and development to the emergency management theory.Secondly, conceptual model and measuring tools of the influencing factors for roadtraffic accidents has been built, revealing the key influence factors of road trafficemergency management and its structure relationship. Through analyzing the formationmechanism of road traffic incident, two dimensional evaluation of road traffic emergencyrisk has been established; through statistical analysis to the related influencing factors ofroad traffic accidents, the initiative status of human has been established; On the basis ofanalyzing the basic characteristics of road traffic incidents, road transportation emergencyhierarchy relationship between various influencing factors of structure has been constructedusing ISM, the result shows that the most direct factors of road traffic incident are thefacilities condition, the stand or fall of road foundation conditions, network topology andtraffic flow state, these are the internal cause of road traffic incidents, under the influence ofthe lower level, other factors are through them before they can work.Thirdly, analysis from vulnerability perspective under comprehensive assessmentframework, road network vulnerability conceptual model has been constructed, exploredthe formation mechanism of road network, using EFA and CFA method to parse the indexsystem, extracted15indicators with high factor loading, established the road traffic systemvulnerability evaluation system of emergency management, and then build a model ofevaluating the ENTROPY-TOPSIS method, illuminated the road traffic emergencymanagement system vulnerability evaluation standard and evaluation system, finally withArcGIS conducted vulnerability zoning, realized the vulnerability analysis under theframework of comprehensive evaluation for road traffic emergency management system.Fourthly, analysis from capability perspective under comprehensive assessment framework, through dynamic analysis framework, the weak links of road traffic emergencymanagement has been revealed, namely the identification of the prevention and control ofmajor impact on public security vulnerabilities. Dynamic systematic evaluation on aspecific crisis response capacity of public safety events in a certain area can be carried outduring this process, specifically including Systematic evaluation of public pre-crisisprevention and control capability, monitoring and early warning capabilities, materialsupport capacity, emergency response, recovery and reconstruction capability. On the basisof literature review and depth interview, the element framework model of road trafficemergency capability has been built with Grounded theory, using EFA and CFA method toverify its reliability and validity and illustrate the structure of the relationship betweenvarious factors; A fuzzy multiple criteria decision making method is proposed based onintuition triangular fuzzy number and weighted TOPSIS, according to the introduction ofemergency capability maturity level standard to judge the maturity level of the study area,finally with ArcGIS conducted capability zoning, realized the capability analysis under theframework of comprehensive evaluation for road traffic emergency management system.Finally, comprehensive evaluation of risk measurement model has been constructed,under the frame four types of road traffic emergency are unified, further revealedvulnerabilities and capacities of emergency mechanism of the road traffic emergencymanagement system. By full understand the basic risk concepts and expressions, conceptualmodel and triangle framework of risk are built. Based on above, risk models of road trafficincidents has been obtained revealed the vulnerability and capacity the risk of road trafficincidents role relationships, with ArcGIS conducted index and comprehensive valueanalysis, thus realized the comprehensive evaluation of road traffic emergency managementsystem under the framework of risk analysis.