Research On Population Mobility, Marriage Stabality And Fertility

Since the reform and opening up, China’s divorce rate is increasing year by year, with the fertility level dclining rapidly. At the mean while, the population flow, especially the large-scale flow of the rural population, is considered to be one of the importent, factors affecting the stability of marriage and fertility rate. Most researches show that, the floating population’s family divorce rate is higher than non-migrant families, while the birth rate is lower. These documents always fasten on the measurement of "marital stability of population-flow effect" or "fertility of population-flow effect", but lacking analysis and recognition of the causal relationship of their formation and transmission mechanism, and also lacking consideration of association between fertility and marital stability. As the stability of marriage and fertility themselves have correlation in some degree, any separate analysis of population flow and the stability of marriage and fertility are one-sided. The innovation of this paper is to try to make up for the deficiency of the existing researchs, trying to use economic research methods to analyze the effects of population mobility on the stability of marriage and fertility rate. The main research tasks and goals are, finding the microscopic mechanism of effects floating population have on marriage and procreation decision, and correlation mechanism of effects population flow have on the stability of marriage and fertility rate, in order to deepen our understanding about the issue of "family marriage-floating population".Based on the Junichiro Ishida’s divorce model, we build a stable marriage model containing multi-parameters, analyzing the effects and effects’conditions that population mobility has on marital stability through social evaluation, remarriage market scale, matching probability and searching cost mechanisms etc. By comparative analysis, we summarized the specific mechanisms of different population-flow, which affects the stability of the marriage. At the same time, our paper also establish a fertility model including parameters such as fertility desire according to the Becker’fertility-cost-utility theory, visually presenting the contacts and influence mechanisms among wage rate, fertility investment’price, fertility desires and fertility rate. In biochemical analysis of the fertility desire, we obtains that, the floating population makes wages and family input prices increased, which leading to the decline of the fertility desire. Influenced by declining of the fertility desire, rising of wage and fertility-input’s prices, fertility rate also decreases.Considering the correlation between the stability of marriage and the fertility rate, this paper also introduces the marriage stability parameter into the fertility model, and makes the revision and extension of the fertility model. In the case of the marriage stability is endogenous, the stability of the marriage and the fertility rate have a stable equilibrium solution. When the stability of the marriage is off balance, the birth control policy has the effect of feedback (or spontaneous regulation mechanism), that is, to increase the stability of the marriage by increasing the number of births, then fertility rate is also maintained at the original level. What we know through analysis is that, there exists two mechanisms that the floating population affect on equilibrium, on the one hand, floating population make fertility desire decreased, fertility regulation mechanism failuring; on the other hand, floating population makes marriage stability decreased, thereby reducing the birth rate. Under the common transmission of these two mechanisms, the balanced fertility level of the floating population is greatly reduced. In the empirical analysis, this paper uses CGSS respondents’gender concept to measure the stability of the relationship. The conclusion shows that the more open of the concept of gender, the lower the stability of the marriage. Regression results of interaction terms of population flow and the concept of gender on fertility rate show that, rural non-floating population’s gender stereotypes have no effect on fertility rate, while flow population’s concept of gender has a significant impact on the fertility rate.In general, under the background of current population aging acceleration and full liberalization of the two child policy, analyses effets that population-flow has on marriage stability and fertility level under a unified framework is a beneficial attempt, with a certain theoretical value and practical significance.