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Low Fertility Level Of The Socio-economic Sustainable Development

Posted on:2004-06-16Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:X ChenFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360095962784Subject:Population, resource and environmental economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Till now, the Family Planning policy has been implemented over thirty years in China. While the national population growth has been controlled efficiently, the super-low fertility level and the negative population increasing has been going on for more than ten years in the East-south areas and some well-developed areas, such as Sunan area. The severe aging problem has brought some evident negative effects to the local social and economic development, and is going to be the obstacle on the way to sustainable development.How to archive the social and economic sustainable development under the standing super-low fertility level? This is a critical problem that the national population economic circle has to deal with. Only when we solve this problem, can we make sure the sustainable development of China's population, as well as the sustainable social and economic development, and therefore, reach the supposed aim of Family Planning policy.Based on the analysis of the relationship between population and social economic development, and the population forecast of certain area (Jiangsu province Taicang city), I bring forward the one-sector economic optimum population and the multi-sector optimum population. What I employed is the EOP-MM model and P-S model. The constraints are the local economic and resource conditions. After all, the policy options to reach optimum population are discussed: adjusting fertility level, encouraging replacement migration, promote the ritiring age, and investing human capital.
Keywords/Search Tags:Taicang, population forecast, super-low fertility, optimum population, replacement migration, human capital
PDF Full Text Request
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