A Comparative Study On Population Policy Between Jiangsu Province And Zhejiang Province

For the past twenty years, Chinese and foreign academic scholars have been paying more and more attention to the summary and reflection on population policy, and the controversy about the policy of climate change has been making it outstanding. With economic growth stepping into a new normal, China requires a moderate and reasonable population scale and an optimistic population structure, that makes the evolution of population policy in China be undergoing an important historical turning point. In this context, a comparative study on population policy and an evaluation on the choice and trend of reproductive policy is a vital crucial topic.This paper is divided into eight chapters except for the introduction and epilogue. The introduction discusses the five background aspects and the research significance. Chapter 1 is a detailed literature review and evaluation on population policy. Views on how to adjust the population policy are classified four schools as strictly control the crunch, quantitative easing, encourage expansion as well as independent decision. Chapter 2 explains six important concepts by one to one, introduces and methods in this article, and also shows the basic ideas and innovation. In view of India is the first national around the world, which once turn his family planning from mandatory to voluntary, Chapter 3 makes a case analysis and gives some lessons on the historical evolution of population policy in India from an international perspective, and highlights the objective laws of how to adjust population policy with the historical evolution experiences and some influence factors on population policy in this country. Presented a listed table about events in the family planning of India, Chapter 4 discusses the historical process of the evolution of China’s population policy and his corresponding stages, and gives a conclusion with four population policy features according to the major characteristics in China. Chapter 5 analyzes the formation process of population policy in Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province with seven different stages and compares the policy from adjusted time, policy rules and other implementation details.With the data of censuses and Statistical Yearbook from 1949 to 2010, Chapter 6 compares the population size, population structure, fertility level, population distribution and their historical changes between Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province. As a result, it shows a same trend in spite of different population policy with low total fertility rate and huge negative population growth inertia. Chapter 7 probes into influence on total fertility rate (TFR) between policy factor and non-policy factors by the use of the panel data of 196 counties from 2010 data of sixth national census in Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province. We found the impact of policy differences on TRP still run. Nevertheless the effect of population policy is minimal, the fundamental reason resulting in differences of TRP levels in difference of socio-economic levels of development in these two provinces.Through the application of population forecast model, Chapter 8 makes an expectation from the total population, children birth, birth level, population structure and demographic trend after the proclaimed policy running within the two provinces. The forecasted results show that there be not born accumulation after the implementation of separate two child policy, the adjustment of family planning policy has not long run effect and cannot prevent the negative growth trend of population. It also cannot fundamentally eliminate the structural crisis of their population.Taking into account the low fertility presented from Jiangsu & Zhejiang province and freeze policy phenomenon. It is true that more liberal population policy be implemented. In the adjustment and improvement of population policy in the future, China should strive to achieve three important transitions, i.e. turn his population policy from government orientation to market orientation, from implicit population policy to explicit population policy, and from direct intervention to indirectly involvement.