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Spatial Distribution Of The China’s Population Structure And The Effect Of The Structure Changes On Economic Growth

Posted on:2017-01-19Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:X N KongFull Text:PDF
GTID:1227330503483987Subject:Theoretical Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The Premier Li Keqiang in the study of research management and service of population and family planning work stressed that “comprehensively address population issues to promote the coordinated development of the population and the economic society”. In the human social the coordination between the population distribution and the regional economic is considered to be the core issue, which is particularly the core issue to make the economic sustainable and rapid growth. However, the existing researches are focused on exploring the coordination of the total population and economic growth, and rarely come to the relationship of the population structure and regional economic growth. China has achieved rapid economic growth in the world in the recent decades which is known as the “Chinese miracle” under the guide of the reform and opening policy as well as market economy. However, the problem of the unbalanced regional economic development has not been effectively improved. Since then, the harmonious development of population distribution and economic growth of the regions had entered one of the key topics in the field of demographic and economic research. Especially in the 10 years of the 21 st century, with the changes in the international and domestic situations China’s economy and population almost simultaneously “new normal” and both come to public view(Li Jianmin, 2015). Population as a productive factor directly involved in production, changes in its structure inevitably have a profound and far-reaching impact on the changes in economic structure. While has also had an impact to the mode and pace of China’s economic development.In addition,demographic variables as the dominant factor affecting the consumer market, to some extent, can also have a huge impact on the national economy growth by changing the existing supply and demand. It is believed that in our country the population “new normal” to some extent created the economy “new normal”.Of course, it is also the basis for the economy maintaining the controlled growth in the new normal.This paper is start of the relations between demographic and economic under the current economic situation,then statistics and analysis the spatial distribution characteristics, trends and regional differences of the demographic, which can help the government to grasp the real-time status of the China’s population development, and provide a reference from theoretical level for the government to formulate population policies. Based on the above analysis, theoretically analyzed the channels of affecting China’s economic growth by changes in population age structure, changes in the structure of urban-rural areas, and changes in the structure of education under the “new normal” population. Empirically test the direction and magnitude of the population structure change to national economic growth. Further test impact of the changes of the differences on regional and intra-regional demographic to the differences on economic growth, namely test impact of the differences on the demographic changes to the convergence of the economic growth. Moreover, the paper also verify whether there is a threshold effect the changes in population structure to the economic growth, namely the impact of the innovation to the economic growth is different due to the differences of the demographic and spatial distribution.Depending on the purpose and content of the article, this paper is divided into five parts, including eight chapters. The first part is to ask questions, including the first chapter that background, the significance and content. The second part is the theoretical analysis, including the chapter 2 and 3, which is using progressive manner to demonstrate. First, review the basic theory, and secondly sort out literature on population structure affecting economic growth. Finally, summarize the way and the mechanism of the demographic on the China’s economic growth. It concluded that changes in the structure of the urban-rural population and changes in education structure are conducive to accelerate the China’s economic growth. In contrast, changes in the age structure of our population are not conducive to China’s economic growth. The third part is the analysis of the status quo, including the chapter 4, which analysis trends and the differences of the spatial distribution of the urban-rural population structure, education structure and age structure. Concluding that there are obvious differences in the spatial distribute of China’s population structure. The general trend of the differences in the educational structure and in the urban-rural structure is convergent. The general trend of the differences in age structure is expanded. The fourth part is empirical analysis, including Chapter 5, 6, and 7. Test direction and magnitude of the population structure changes affecting China’s economic growth, the effect of the differences in the population structure changes to the differences in the economic growth, and verify that the population structure threshold affect the effect of the innovation investment to the national economic growth. It concluded that changes of the population structure to China’s economic growth have a dynamic effect and spatial effect, and the empirical results of population structure and economic growth show that the positive effect of changes in the structure of urban-rural to China’s economic growth is significantly greater than the changes in educational structure. Over time, the effect of changes in the age structure to China’s economic growth is not significantly changed by the significantly negative. The results also confirmed that the effect of the changes in the population structure to the region’s economic growth has a significant phase and regional characteristics, and that in different stages and different areas the effects of the changes in population structure to economic growth are significantly different. Thus, differences in population structure are the main causes of the regional economic disparities. Nationally, the differences in urban-rural population structure and differences in education structure are major causes to the differences in economic growth, wherein the differences in urban-rural population structure is the main reason for the differences in economic growth in the eastern region, differences in urban-rural population structure, education structure and age structure are the main reasons for the differences in economic growth in the central region, differences in age structure are the main reasons for the differences in economic growth in the western region. The effect of the innovation investment on China’s economic growth has a significant population structure threshold effect. By constructing demographic index, and make it as a threshold variable to do regression analysis. Depending on the size of the threshold, China’s 31 provinces will be divided into four areas, and drawing innovation investment impact on economic growth are obvious different according to different areas. The fifth part is to solve the problem, including Chapter 8, conclusions and policy recommendations. Finally, prospected are proposed.
Keywords/Search Tags:Population structure, Economic growth, Regional differences, Threshold variable
PDF Full Text Request
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