Research On The Influence Of Population Structure Change On Regional Industrial Structure Upgrading Differences

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,with the rapid growth of China's economy,China's industrial structure has been continuously adjusted and improved,but compared with developed countries,there are still some problems,such as the backward development of service industry and the extensive production and supply mode.To further promote the upgrading of industrial structure and promote high-quality economic development is of great significance for successfully crossing the "middle-income trap",improving the quality of ecological environment and coping with international competition.There are many factors affecting the upgrading of industrial structure,among which population,as an important factor of production,can directly participate in the production link,which is one of the important factors affecting the upgrading of industrial structure.Therefore,the change of population structure will inevitably have a profound impact on the upgrading of industrial structure.At present,when China's economy has entered the "new normal",the population also presents the characteristics of "new normal" :(1)The natural growth rate of the population has declined,the proportion of the elderly population has increased rapidly,and the labor supply has decreased.(2)The urbanization of the population has accelerated.(3)The quality of the population has been rapidly improved.From the definition of population structure,the academic community generally divides the population structure into three categories: natural population structure,regional population structure and social population structure,corresponding to the three classification standards of population structure.Starting from the main characteristics of population "new normal",this paper chooses three directions to measure the change of population age structure,urban-rural population structure and population education structure the change of population structure,and then analyze the impact of the change of population structure on the upgrading of industrial structure.China has a vast land area,and there are great differences in the upgrading of industrial structure among provinces.Due to the differences in industrial structure upgrading among provinces,different industrial structure characteristics are formed,such as the output value structure of three industries,employment structure,labor productivity and so on.It is worth considering whether the changes of population structure have similar effects on the upgrading of industrial structure in different regions.In the past,the research on the impact of population structure changes on industrial structure upgrading has mostly taken regional heterogeneity analysis as a part of expansibility analysis or robustness test.Few studies comprehensively analyze the impact of population structure changes on the upgrading of industrial structure in different regions.At the same time,in the study area division,previous studies have divided the whole country into three regions: eastern,central and western,so as to divide the whole country into three regions the paper analyzes the regional heterogeneity of the population structure change on the upgrading of industrial structure.Based on the analysis of the change trend and current situation of some inter provincial industrial structure characteristics,this paper finds that according to the division method of eastern,central and western regions,it can not meet the research needs of studying the impact of population structure change on regional industrial structure upgrading.Specifically,there are great differences in industrial structure upgrading among eastern,central and western regions.In the study of regional division,we did not use the traditional method of eastern,central and western division,but from the consideration of objectively and efficiently reflecting the differences of industrial structure upgrading between provinces,and taking into account the fact that the differences of industrial structure upgrading between provinces have formed different characteristics of industrial structure since the reform and opening up for more than 40 years.The paper uses the system clustering method to cluster the administrative regions at the provincial level.According to the system clustering structure,this paper divides the30 provinces of China into four categories,which is the basis for the regional division of industrial structure upgrading differences.Based on the regional clustering,this paper studies the influence of population structure changes on the upgrading of industrial structure at the national level and in each cluster area from the perspectives of population age structure change,population urban rural structure change and population education structure change.Compared with most previous studies,the measurement of industrial structure upgrading in this paper is more comprehensive and systematic.It not only constructs the industrial structure upgrading coefficient and the industrial structure rationalization coefficient to measure the overall upgrading of the three industrial structures,but also constructs the internal structure upgrading coefficient of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry to measure the internal structure upgrading of the secondary and tertiary industries.In general,the research content of this paper can be summarized into five parts,and the structure is as follows:The first part consists of chapters 1 and 2.This paper briefly introduces the research background of the topic,explains the theoretical and practical significance of the topic,combs the research framework from three aspects of research ideas,research content and research methods,and points out the innovation and shortcomings of this paper.At the same time,it combs the domestic and foreign research literature on the impact of the changes of population age structure,urban and rural population structure,and population education structure on the upgrading of industrial structure.The second part corresponds to the content of chapter 3.The concepts of population structure change and industrial structure upgrading are defined,the relevant theories of population structure change and industrial structure upgrading are reviewed,and the influence mechanism of population structure change on industrial structure upgrading is summarized.The third part corresponds to chapter 4.Based on the analysis of the changing trend and current situation of population structure and industrial structure at the national level and provincial level,this paper selects three dimensions of output value structure,employment structure and labor productivity to build the evaluation index system of regional industrial structure characteristics,calculates the comprehensive index value of regional industrial structure by using the coefficient of variation method,and finally uses the system clustering method to carry out the evaluation The regional clustering division of industrial structure upgrading differences is carried out.The fourth part consists of chapters 5,6 and 7.This part is the empirical research part of this paper.Firstly,it uses the static panel model to analyze the differences of the impact of population structure change on the upgrading of industrial structure at the national level and in each cluster region.Secondly,it uses the mediating effect model to test the impact mechanism of population structure change on the upgrading of industrial structure.Finally,it uses the panel threshold model to analyze the impact of population structure change on the upgrading of industrial structure.The dynamic panel model is used to test the robustness of the results of the basic model.The fifth part corresponds to chapter 8.On the basis of summarizing the previous empirical research results,this paper draws the research conclusions,which can be summarized as follows: on the whole,the impact of population structure change on the upgrading of industrial structure at the national level and in different cluster regions is different,and the impact mechanism is also different.In terms of regional comparison,the change of population age structure has a more prominent impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in category 3 areas,while it has no obvious impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in category 1 areas.The change of population urban-rural structure has a more prominent impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in category 1 areas than in other areas.The change of population education structure has promoted the upgrading of industrial structure in category 1 to 3 areas,but has no significant impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in category 4 areas.From the perspective of the non linear impact of population structure change on the upgrading of industrial structure,there are double threshold effects of population age structure change on the upgrading of industrial structure and the upgrading of the internal structure of the three industries.With the improvement of the level of consumer spending,the promotion effect of population age structure change on the upgrading of industrial structure is further enhanced,and the hindrance effect on the upgrading of the internal structure of the three industries is improved weaken.The change of population urban and rural structure has double threshold effect on the advancement of industrial structure.When the level of population urbanization crosses the first threshold,the promotion effect of population urban-rural structure change on the advancement of industrial structure will be enhanced,while when it crosses the second threshold,the promotion will weaken.When labor capital is taken as the threshold,the change of population urban-rural structure will decrease.When labor capital is taken as the threshold,the change of population urban-rural structure will decrease.There is a single threshold effect on the advancement of industrial structure,and the promotion effect on the higher level of industrial structure will be further enhanced when the threshold value is crossed.The change of population education structure has a single threshold effect on the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure respectively.When the gradient upgrading coefficient of education level exceeds the threshold value,the positive impact of the change of population education structure on the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure will be further enhanced.Finally,according to the research conclusions,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the upgrading of regional industrial structure from three perspectives of coping with the changes of population age structure,urban-rural structure and education structure.