A Study On Chinese Agricultural Export Market Structure And Its Optimization

The fact that the developed countries like the USA, Japan and European countries are China’s main export markets puts China’s foreign trade at a high risk. In view of this, Chinese government has long since issued the market diversification strategy to optimize the export market structure. Diversity results in stability. As one of the underlying principle in bionomics, it embodies a universal scientific thought and gives revelations in many fields. So it is in the policy of market diversification strategy. For its gross export, the present China’s agricultural export status implies a high market concentration; therefore a call for optimization is even more stressful.The innovations of this paper:(1)In order to measure if China’s farm produce export market structure matches with that of the world, this paper uses Spearman’s rank correlation approach to research. Spearman’s rank correlation uses of the Spearman rank correlation coefficient measured variable degree of correlation between the levels of a non-parametric statistical analysis method for at least two measurement scales sequencing of the samples of the determination of the degree of inter-related. In this paper, the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient stands for the matching index of the exports of agricultural products market structure and market structure in the world imports of agricultural products, i.e. the matching index of the export of agricultural products and its analysis of time series and international comparisons.In addition, the article also expanded the income of changes in the structure of the index and the index of Lawrence’s application. Changes in the structure of the profitability index is used to study a country’s export structure with the World change in the structure of the imported goods are the same tools, which is to measure if commodity-exporting countries is sensitive to the world production of demanded goods. Profitability by changing the structure of the various components of the index, this paper takes it as an index to test if the market structure of China’s agricultural products exports is sensitive to the world market structure changes. Laurence index also would have to measure a country’s merchandise trade structure changes, and this paper also takes it to measure the change rate of China’s exports of agricultural products market.(2)By building a reflection of China’s farm produce export volume of trade gravity model to estimate China’s agricultural products export potential, combined with coefficient dependent index, this paper divides China’s agricultural export market into low-risk, high-potential market, high-risk high-potential market, low-risk high-potential market with low risk and low-potential market. This calculation of export potential and finding a way to export markets is very different from the use of traditional trade intensity index, and trade complementarities index methods, and the two can complement each other.The shortages of this paper:(1)Changes in the structure of the profitability index is the weighted average number based on a share of China’s agricultural exports. We know that when calculating the weighted average, its weighting should be one, but due to this paper only analyzes part of our of the export market, its total export share is not one. More importantly, China’s exports to these markets may not be the same cumulative share in different years. So it impacts the comparability of the index of earning change structure in different years. In the international comparison this issue may be more serious, because the export share of different sample countries may enjoy an even greater gap, which also affects the comparability between different countries in the calculation of changing index of earnings structure.(2)Construction of this article is a trade gravity model to reflect all of China’s farm produce export volume, and use the model to estimate export potential and find the target market, but agricultural products are various, such a model may forecast well China’s important export produce, but not those less important ones. This paper does not distinguish them, and uses the same model to forecast the export potential of meat products, fruits, vegetables and aquatic products.