| 30years of reform and opening up, China has achieved rapid economic development, people’s living standards, housing conditions of the residents has greatly improved, showing a rapid development of China’s real estate trends.From1993to2003, the Chinese real estate development and investment from the193.75billion yuan, up to1.01061trillion yuan, an increase of10years was4.2times average annual growth of17.96%, while total fixed asset investment over the same period of low growth rate of about1.5percentage points, but far more than the GDP growth rate over the same period. By2004, Beijing, Shanghai and other first tier cities commercial housing prices rose more than20%of the nation’s commercial housing prices in many cities to promote the role of different levels, rapid increases in the price of commercial housing has affected people’s daily lives. In order to inhibit the commercial housing prices, the government introduced the policy in2004agreement to stop selling land to regulate the land market, the first time in nearly eight years the central bank to raise interest rates to curb overheating in demand in some areas in2005also requested the transfer to stop mortgage business, in order to suppress speculation. During2006-2007commercial housing prices continue to rise sharply in China real estate market reveals a certain degree of non-rational features. In2008, the U.S. mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis, China’s real estate market volume and price fall, especially in a large drop in demand effectively, resulting in more serious non-equilibrium of supply and demand until early2009, only to been eased. However, the end of2009, China re-emergence of the real estate market trends in the development of non-rational, a lot of money influx, resulting in the land auction market "sites" has been renewed price of commercial housing prices improve, force the Government to continue to introduce new political stability and commercial housing prices, but Most of the city’s commercial housing price growth trend in the increase, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities in commercial housing price trend line more rapidly, led the second and third tier cities commercial housing prices rising.China’s real estate market is difficult to cover the surface of the prosperity of its deep root, for example, high vacancy rates, market competition is not standardized, regional development is uneven, imperfect financial markets, commercial housing. Tells us the market economy:excess supply should lead to falling commodity prices, but it is precisely China’s real estate market prices continued to rise coexist with structural oversupply, which shows China’s real estate market supply and demand of non-equilibrium phenomena. To ensure the development of national science and inhibit further deterioration of this phenomenon, in January2010SCS the notice requirements for a stable and healthy development of the real estate market, in April2010the State Council, China Banking Regulatory Commission, the Department of housing construction real estate market continue to put control policy:Bank speculative investment in housing loan may not speed up the security room building containing housing prices, loans to buy two suites down payment no less than50%of the price too high may suspend the payment of the third suite area loans, strict implementation of commodity housing purchase real-name system. Real estate related degree, affect a wide range, both with regard to the overall operation of the national economy issues, but also to live and work related to consumer issues. Non-equilibrium phenomena of the real estate market not only institutional mechanisms related to the market, but also issues related to policy control, is well received by macroeconomic factors, microeconomic factors are subject to the constraints. Both the real estate market phenomena deep historical background, and distinctive characteristics of the times.In view of this, the research on real estate should be a huge systematic project, this more general theory of perspective from the start, the use of non-equilibrium theory, and methods of supply and demand in the Chinese real estate market of non-equilibrium problem, by analyzing the real estate market in China unbalanced supply and demand situation, the real estate market supply and demand of the reasons for non-equilibrium operation and regulation mechanisms for the development of the real estate market supply and demand balance ways and means to promote the balanced development of the real estate market to provide policy based on supply and demand.This mainly includes the following:Chapter Introduction. Clear background of this study, subjects and contents, methods and ideas. Of relevant concepts and methods of analysis to define, questions and analytical framework.Chapter II Literature Review. Review the real estate market, non-equilibrium theory and effective supply and demand research status, including the main academic point of view, the existing research and so on.Chapter Real Estate Market Analysis of non-equilibrium.1,The real estate market development in China in history, from the supply and demand, supply and demand structure, supply and demand point of view of the real estate market at this stage of non-equilibrium situation and existing problems.2, Analysis of the real estate market supply and demand factors and the impact of non-equilibrium and its characteristics, derived demand and supply of commercial housing price is the real estate market, the main factors of non-equilibrium.3, Building on Kornai hyperbolic equation of the real estate market, aggregate demand and supply of non-equilibrium econometric model, using2000-2009data on Chinese real estate market, quantitative analysis, supply and demand come to the real estate market and the trend of non-equilibrium degrees.Chapter IV of non-equilibrium theory model of the real estate market analysis. In the above quantitative analysis, based on analysis of the internal structure of the real estate market, the real estate market supply and demand of non-equilibrium of internal and external to internal work through a qualitative discussion.1,The establishment of the market, including product supply, factor supply market, auction market, second-hand housing market and aggregate supply model of the demolition, analysis of consumers, developers, local governments, second-hand housing landlord behavior patterns; the establishment of commercial housing rental market, including products, commercial housing investment market, commercial housing market, and incremental production-the stock of total demand associated model of investors, developers and consumer behavior patterns. Derive the aggregate supply and aggregate demand equilibrium conditions, the number of effective supply and demand and price. This qualitative description of the market equilibrium, indicating association market, related to what should be the main conditions of synergies to make the market equilibrium run.2, The total supply and demand model for the establishment of the real estate market, the total supply and demand equilibrium condition is derived. Run by the actual market conditions in the ideal model assumed the same comparison can be found there is a wide gap between the two, which contributed to the actual operation process of market supply and demand Zai yes in disequilibrium.3, In rms of total supply and demand balance, based on comparative static method of using endogenous factors and exogenous factors on the real estate market demand and supply of non-equilibrium effects and transmission mechanism. Further analysis of association by the market, the main characteristics and trends related to achieve the non-equilibrium movement in the market direction and strength of judgments and projections provide the basis for effective regulation.Chapter V the real estate market supply and demand balance and developing policy recommendations. From the sound demand and supply mechanism, regulate the behavior of related subjects, improve housing security system and strengthen the supervision of implementation of the system gives the policy recommendations in four areas.Chapter VI Conclusion and Outlook.l,The paper’s main conclusions:First, China’s real estate market, historical data estimates show that:the real estate market, the higher degree of effective demand and supply of non-equilibrium, supply and demand of commercial housing price level higher than the equilibrium state of the consumer market’s ability to pay, actually reduces the effective demand of consumers; In order to ensure that the property market, De long-term health development and the well of the Ti Gao, the Government should promote the Real Estate Market for balance as the basic policy of the Fang Zhen, Gu Li Real Estate Kaifaqiye Touzijingji affordable housing, Tong Shi Daliezhi speculation. The results show that exogenous shocks on the market a greater degree of non-equilibrium effects, the market lacks ability to resist risks. Should further improve the real estate market system, strengthen risk warning mechanism, the development of effective control measures to improve the ability to impact the real estate market.Second, the establishment of theoretical methods based on non-equilibrium econometric model of supply and demand on the Chinese real estate market, empirical analysis, empirical results show that:the impact of China’s real estate market of non-equilibrium of supply and demand factors, the sales price of the greatest impact on the effective supply and demand:the demand from the commercial housing term, effective demand and sales of commercial property prices (XSJ) positive correlation; effective demand and sales of commercial property prices (XSJ) shows a positive correlation exists at the present stage of Chinese real estate market speculation, is consistent with the actual situation; from room real estate supply point of view, the effective supply and commercial housing construction investment amount (STZ), commercial housing sales price (XSJ) showed a positive relationship. Through model fitting of effective demand and effective supply, calculate the degree of China’s real estate market of non-equilibrium results show that the Chinese real estate market in the supply of slightly less than in2000-2001; During2001-2004in supply exceeding demand, which in2004the smallest non-equilibrium value, suggesting a more serious situation of supply exceeding demand; During2004-2005increasing effective demand and the emergence of the phenomenon in short supply; During2005-2006basic balance of supply and demand; During2006-2008oversupply phenomenon has emerged, and in2008appeared more serious oversupply situation; to the gradual recovery in2009the market supply-demand balance, but still slightly less than effective demand.Thirdly, the Chinese real estate market supply and demand model derived total market variables on the mechanism of non-equilibrium:the number of effective supply consumers with budget planning and adjustment, the level of competition and land auctions in the share of the cost was the same relationship to the changes with the development cost was a negative relation; effective supply price with consumer choice, planning adjustment factor, land auctions and land prices in the level of competition in the proportion of the total cost was a negative relation:capitalization rate with the number of effective demand, macroeconomic indicators, the depreciation rate had a positive relationship, with the marginal cost of production, demand for rent was a negative relation to marginal; effective demand price with macroeconomic factors, the depreciation rate and the marginal cost of development had a positive relationship, with the capitalization rate into an anti-relation to the changes;Fourth, the Chinese real estate market supply and demand model derived total behavior associated with the main non-equilibrium of the market mechanism: consumers of commercial housing choice, the effective supply of larger volume and the effective supply price; land market bid the more intense the greater the number of effective supply, the lower the effective supply price; local government efforts to control the land market is larger, the larger the number of effective supply, the lower the effective supply price; local government planning and adjustment is larger, the greater the number of effective supply, effective supply and lower the price; landlord accepted the higher cost of demolition, then the smaller number of effective supply, the higher the effective supply price; the stock of the faster depreciation, then the greater the effective demand, effective demand, the smaller the price; investors in capital rate requirements of small, effective demand is the increasing number of effective demand lower prices; consumers more sensitive to the rent, then the number of effective demand, the less effective the lower the demand price; development of the higher marginal cost, then the fewer the number of effective demand, lower the price of effective demand.2,The main innovation of this article:First, the real estate market often use non-equilibrium model to measure the main factors for the analysis of data collected by the restrictions can often only come to the conclusion some of the more macro, can not in-depth real estate market within-depth discussion come to a lack of specific policy recommendations. This more comprehensive study with the real estate market supply and demand related to multiple markets and the characteristics associated with the main body. Content according to market transactions, as well as in the real estate associated with the main role played by the market, may be classified into two major aggregate supply and aggregate demand, the real estate market in the aggregate supply and demand market, market.In which total supply market, including product supply market, the supply of market factors, the demolition market, the land auction market. In product supply, consumer behavior by the commercial housing price and second-hand housing prices and budget constraint decisions; in the elements of the supply market, developers conduct the auction by the commercial housing price and land price determination; in the land auction, land auction price by the local government behavior and demolition costs of the decision; house demolition in the secondary market, the landlord acts of demolition by the second-hand housing prices and the cost of the decision. When the total supply of market equilibrium under given conditions, to form a balanced supply price and quantity supplied, this is defined as the effective supply price and the number of effective supply.The total demand for commercial housing rental markets, including markets, investment in commercial housing market, commercial housing production market. In the commercial housing rental market, user demand on the leasing of commercial housing stock by the macro economy, level of rent, rental demand and supply and demand of the stock of such factors; in the commercial housing investment market, the commercial housing price by a certain future capital gains rate of discount and receive; production in commercial housing market, the price of commercial housing investment by the commercial housing market to determine the number of production assets to maintain the commercial housing price is equal to the level of commercial housing development costs. When the total demand under certain conditions, the formation of market equilibrium, the demand on the formation of equilibrium price and quantity demanded, the paper is defined as the number of effective demand, prices and demand.On aggregate supply and aggregate demand market, the discussion of the market and found that some rules of market operation and associated subjects behavior.Second, learning based on classical assumptions established by the real estate market of non-equilibrium theory of the.total supply and demand model, derived aggregate supply and aggregate demand equilibrium condition, the definition of the real estate market supply and demand of non-equilibrium. And the balance of market supply and demand conditions, the definition of non-equilibrium operation of the market are the main behavioral characteristics associated with the law and to express, so the real estate market supply and demand on the establishment of micro-analysis based on non-equilibrium. Third, the total real estate market based on supply and demand model of non-equilibrium theory, discussed the use of the comparative static approach of non-equilibrium of the real estate market supply and demand factors and exogenous factors of endogenous and its mechanism. Found that endogenous factors are the root cause, and only grasped the basic rules of market operation and behavior characteristics associated with the main body of the self-interest, can we truly know and understand the real estate market supply and demand. On this basis, proposed in this paper based on the improvement of the market itself, regulate behavior associated with the main focus point for the macro-control policy. |
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