Study On The Quantity Disequilibrium Of Real Estate Market Effective Supply And Demand In Jiangsu Province

In recent years, the development of the real estate industry has become a hot topic for nation, enterprise and individual, and it not only has something to do with economic issues, but also is a reflection of certain social and political issues. As the same as market of other business areas, the real estate market is composed of two main components, supply and demand, which also always shows two states, balanced and unbalanced. General equilibrium state between society’s total supply and total demand is an ideal state of the running economy, while to the economic activity, disequilibrium is a real and stable state that we should pay more attention to. By analyzing and studying the causes and laws of market disequilibrium, people are trying their best to reduce the degree of non-equilibrium, make full use of resources, and finally achieve the idea of creating ideal market with balanced supply and demand.In this paper, the author made a systemic research of relevant literature and data analysis and found that supply or demand of the real estate market might lack price elasticity, which means just leaning on price adjustment cannot accommodate demand and supply effectively and alleviate the contradiction between them. Be up against above problems, we find a complemented means--the number adjustments. Therefore, the general equilibrium analysis theory is in the absence of a certain reality, relevance and effectiveness, while the equilibrium theory can compensate for these deficiencies. Taking into account the obvious regional characteristics in real estate market, this paper plans to use the disequilibrium theory to analysis the Jiangsu Province real estate market effective supply and demand quantity disequilibrium.The major works in this paper are included as follows:1. Introducing the disequilibrium theory. Basing on the presentation of general equilibrium theory of economics, this paper focused on introducing the disequilibrium theory, including the basic meaning, basic features, the basic assumptions and related economic analysis. Analysis proved that disequilibrium theory can analysis the unbalanced situation of real estate market more realistically, objectively and scientifically on the conditions of its basic assumption sand, and it can also provide a rigorous analytical framework to carry out the plan of rational allocation of resources. Previous pursuer established the non-equilibrium econometric analysis models under the guidance of non-equilibrium theory. This is complementary and integration work between practice of non-equilibrium economic theory and empirical analysis of statistics, which provides a feasible method for studying the actual economic management. We select the model of quadratic curve to analysis real estate market in Jiangsu.2. Analysis status of disequilibrium in the real estate market of Jiangsu Province. After studying much literature and analysis of relevant data, we find some statuses of disequilibrium in the real estate market of Jiangsu Province are included as follows. Firstly, take the residential market for example, the total residential market effective supply and demand quantity are unbalanced, mainly include:potential demand quantity in the residential market are great, while effective demand quantity are deficient; supply quantity are superfluous relative to effective demand quantity and so on. Secondly, structural disequilibrium of real estate market is obvious, including:product structure is irrational; second-hand housing markets of real estate develop slowly; regional development is unbalanced. On analysis the status of disequilibrium in the real estate market of Jiangsu Province, we can grasp the principal contradiction and make our study purposeful and feasible.3. Establishing the model of quantity disequilibrium of real estate market effective supply and demand in Jiangsu Province and making empirical analysis. This Part is the core of this article. Firstly, we introduced the basic causes to quantity disequilibrium, relevant disequilibrium theory and analytical method. Secondly, we used the data of1990-2009to establish the model of quantity disequilibrium of real estate market effective supply and demand in Jiangsu Province. Through the supply and demand model, we conclude that real estate supply and demand is decided by average selling prices, disposable income, urbanization, real estate investment cost, lending rates and other factors. Meanwhile, the real estate market demand price elasticity is evident, which indicates that there is a certain investment and speculation in the real estate market in Jiangsu. Through the coefficients of supply model, we can draw that we should mainly adjust volume to guide the supply, rather than relying solely on pricing strategies.4. According to supply and demand disequilibrium econometric model, we calculated effective supply and effective demand in the real estate market of Jiangsu from1990to2009, and obtained disequilibrium degree of each year. We can find that the fluctuation of disequilibrium can effectively reflect the actual fluctuation of supply and demand in real estate of Jiangsu, and also find real estate development in Jiangsu is affected very obviously by the situation of international economic development and the implementation of relevant national policies. Therefore, the degree of disequilibrium provides the reference for the governmental macroeconomic regulation, which may help indicators take appropriate fiscal policy, monetary policy, legal policy and administrative policies to promote real estate market of Jiangsu Province to be healthy, stable and sustainable development.