An Analysis Of Effective Supply And Demand Balance In Real Estate Market

Real estate industry not only affects the development of the national economy, the government’s fiscal policy and monetary policy, but also relates to the people’s living standard. Recently, the real estate market of Fengtai District which is one of the important urban districts of Beijing is booming with the whole city’s market which has made great contributions to the development of regional economy and Beijing. However, the real estate market of Fengtai has many problems, like the imbalance of market supply-demand, continuous rising prices, coexistence of excess supply and excess demand and so on, which leave behind the potential dangers for future market.The real estate market development investment of Fengtai has increased by 5.23 times, and the commercial housing selling prices has increased by 6.89 times from 2004 to 2013, while a rapid development market doesn’t mean a healthy and efficient one. Firstly, this paper based on the influencing factors of Fengtai district real estate market, researches the present situation and characteristics of market supply-demand. Secondly, by using the grey theory and grey prediction model, we can predict the real supply and real demand of real estate market for the next five years and we can learn about the future development of market from the result of prediction which shows that the quantities of real supply and real demand are both decreasing and the real supply decreases by a large margin. Lastly, this paper based on the disequilibrium market theory, established the Fengtai disequilibrium econometric model of the real estate market. We can measure the disequilibrium degrees of the real estate market from 2004 to 2013 through the calculation of effective supply and effective demand. We can see that the real estate market of Fengtai has different disequilibrium degrees all the time and in most years, the effective supply is greater than the effective demand in the most years except for 2013. What’s more, the disequilibrium degrees of Fengtai market in recent years gradually decreases under the national policy, so we can predict that the real estate market of Fengtai will go towards a more balanced and efficient direction in the short time if there are no deep policy intervention and market volatility.