Research On Influence Factors Of The Carbon Intensity In Chinese Petrochemical Industry

Greenhouse gas emissions generated by human industrial activities areconsidered to be an important reason for causing global warming. As one of themajor industries of the greenhouse gas emissions, petrochemical industryrequired to assume control of the country’s greenhouse gas emission reductiontask. Thus, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology developed the“petrochemical and chemical industry12th Five-Year development plan” inDecember2011, which explicitly requires the petrochemical industry to realize20%reduction in energy consumption per unit of industrial added value ofindustry-wide and the carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by17%untilthe end year of ‘Twelfth Five-Year Plan’. In order to ensure the realization of thegoal, the petrochemical industry has already carried out actions to reduce carbonintensity, however the effect is very limited than expected. How to identify thecarbon intensity’s influence factors of the petrochemical industry and to clarifythe interaction between the various factors, to ensure the petrochemical industrycould carry out the actions of carbon intensity reduce, therefore to enhancelow-carbon competitive advantage, have become the focus of academia andindustry problems.The studies on the impact of the petrochemical industry’s carbon intensityare still in the first stage. The systematic researches, especially the empiricalresearches are scarce. Based on the summarise of the research results at homeand abroad, our paper builds the theoretical framework of the carbon factors ofpetrochemical industry, studies on the direct impact, indirect impact, anddynamic effect mechanism of the carbon intensity in Chinese petrochemicalindustry, both considering the separate effects of influential factors on the carbonintensity of the petrochemical industry and the dynamic interaction between thefactors. The detailed content as follows:Our paper starts from the definition of the related concepts of the carbonintensity in the petrochemical industry; then analyzes the motivation and thenature of the petrochemical industry carbon intensity reduction; proposes thedirect impacts by the industrial structure, the structure of energy consumption,energy intensity and energy emission intensity on petrochemical industry’scarbon intensity; also proposes the indirect effects by government level, marketlevel, public opinion level and organizational level factors. Basing on the analysis above, we construct the theoretical framework for effect factors oncarbon intensity, which may provide the theoretical support for the comingresearch.For the study on direct factors in carbon intensity of China’s petrochemicalindustry, our paper starts from the theoretical analysis on the direct influencefactors in the carbon intensity, and construct a carbon dioxide emissionscalculation model, the direct influence factors of petrochemical industrydecomposition model and the decoupling of the carbon intensity of thepetrochemical industry state model. We measure the decoupling state of thecarbon intensity of China’s petrochemical industry and identify the main factorsof the carbon intensity of China’s petrochemical industry during the variousdecoupling stages based on the data from various statistical yearbooks.For the study on indirect influence factors, considering the indirect impactanalysis of the carbon intensity of China’s petrochemical industry as thetheoretical foundation, this paper carries out the in-depth analysis of the impactsof the government policies and government action on the low-carbontechnological innovation of petrochemical industry at the government level; theimpacts of the market access, competitive conditions and stakeholders on thelow-carbon technological innovation of petrochemical industry at the marketlevel; the social impact of abnormal events and media coverage on thelow-carbon technological innovation of petrochemical industry at the publicopinion level; the impacts of organizational level, organizational culture,organizational strategy, organization knowledge of the structure and organizationof the petrochemical industry on low-carbon technological innovation; theimpacts of low-carbon technologies innovation for carbon intensity. And weexplore the relationship between the indirect impacts of the carbon intensity ofthe petrochemical industry factors, and put forward the corresponding theoreticalassumptions and path analysis model. Based on this, we do the questionnairedesign and construct measurement based on an empirical test by partial leastsquares structural equation model using259valid sample data, in order toin-depth analysis of the impacts of influence factors and their interactions on thecarbon intensity of the petrochemical industry.In the simulation analysis of the dynamic effects of the carbon intensity ofChina’s petrochemical industry and the analysis of carbon emission reductionstrategy selection, our paper connects the influence factors of the petrochemicalindustry’s carbon intensity to the dynamic changes of carbon intensity, constructthe system dynamics model of the carbon intensity of petrochemical industry, simulate the fluctuations of carbon intensity under the function of the factors atthe government level, market level, public opinion level and organizational level.And we examine the degree of change of carbon intensity by adjusting thevariables. In the end, we propose the policy strategy accelerated carbon intensityof China’s petrochemical industry from the government level, market level, thepublic opinion level and organizational level separately.