Research On Measure Of Technology Innovation Affecting Carbon Intensity Of Industry And Path Of Carbon Emissions Reduction

Industry is the backbone of China’s economy, which is also the mainenergy-consuming sector in China’s national economy. Carbon dioxide emissionsproduced by the consumption of industry’ primary energy is very large andaccounting for ninety percent of carbon dioxide emissions produced by theconsumption of primary energy for overall economic development. Therefore,industrial carbon intensity reduction plays a key role in achievement of China’scarbon intensity reduction targets. Technological innovation is critical to thechanges of industrial carbon intensity. The study on carbon intensity reduction pathbased on technology innovation not only contribute to the energy economic theoriesdevelopment on technology innovation and carbon intensity, but also can providescientific basis for carbon intensity reduction path of industry. Only in this way canwe achieve the goal we put forward. Therefore, this study is of great significance intheory and practice.This paper reviewed the studies of technological innovation and carbon dioxideemissions abatement, and studied mainly on the influence of technology innovationon industrial carbon intensity and its carbon intensity reduction path.The field of our study was defined by definition on technological innovationand carbon intensity in the theoretical analysis framework of technology innovationon industrial carbon intensity and its reduction. The influence of technologyinnovation on carbon intensity was discussed from two aspects which were thereturns effect to scale and substitution effect of technology innovation, and the twoeffects on carbon intensity were brought about by their influence on energyintensity. The changes on technology innovation level had a positive influence oncarbon intensity reduction chiefly from the increase of output efficiency. Based onthis analysis, the theoretical analys is framework of this paper was built whichcontains three aspects that were the manner and extent of the impact oftechnological innovation on the carbon intensity, the manner and extent of theimpact of technological innovation on the carbon intensity, estimate on the totalcost of carbon intensity reduction, cost comparison and path selection of industrialcarbon intensity reduction in different scenarios of technological innovation.This paper analyzed the inverted U-shaped curve of China’s industrial carbondioxide emissions and carbon intensity on the basis of theoretical analysis, andverified the authenticity of the inverted U-shaped curve by the fitting equation, thenanalyzed the main factors affecting inverted U-shaped which contained technology innovation, energy structure and industry structure. The model of the estimation ontechnology innovation affecting carbon intensity was built by drawing on theexperience of identical equation of Kaya and the conventional shift-share method.The model was used to measure technology innovation effect in changes of carbonintensity of industry, mining and quarrying industry and manufacturing, electricpower industry, and analyze obtained the degree of influence of technologicalinnovation on the carbon intensity in industry and its different industries sectors,then analyzed the different effects of technological innovation effects among them.Carbon intensity reduction costs model based on technology innovation, thedevelopment scenarios of industrial carbon intensity reduction were built and thepaths of industrial carbon intensity reduction were firstly studied in this paper whenwe studied optimal path of industrial carbon intensity reduction. Carbon intensityreduction costs model contains three modules which are the module oftechnological innovation effect, the module of the rate of changes in carbonintensity and the module of rates and the cost of carbon intensity reduction inaspects of carbon intensity reduction costs model. N ine development scenarios weredrawn up from outputs of industry, industry structure, energy structure andtechnology innovation by using scenario analysis, and then analyzed the trends ofcarbon intensity in these scenarios. Carbon intensity reduction paths were drawnaccording to the annual amount of carbon dioxide emissions reduction, whichcontained the same amount of emissions reduction, non-equal diminishing amountof emissions reduction and non-equal increment amount of emissions reduction, andthe path of non-equal increment amount of emissions reduction contained non-equalamount of emissions reduction according ratio of equality in carbon intensity andnon-equal amount of emissions reduction according equivalent in carbon intensity.Finally, the costs of different emission reduction path cost in low technologyinnovation scenario, the middle technology innovation scenario and high-techinnovation scenario. According to the technology innovation-driven carbonintensity reduction cost estimation model. The optima l path of China’s industrialcarbon intensity reduction was selected according to above results andcountermeasures for industrial carbon intensity reduction, and countermeasures forindustrial carbon intensity reduction were put forward.