Scenario Analysis And Countermeasures Of Low-carbon Jilin Petrochemical Industry

With the development of human society, the phenomenon of global warming hascaused widespread concern, and the main reason for this phenomenon is caused bygreenhouse gas emissions from industrial production. Petrochemical industry is animportant source of greenhouse gas emissions, the country plays a key role inreducing greenhouse gas emissions. Ministry of Industry and Information Technologyin December2011clearly requires the petrochemical industry that at the end of the"Twelvfth Five-year Plan"， the whole industry reduce energy consumption per unitof industrial added value of20%of carbon dioxide emissions reduced by17%inorder to ensure the smooth realization of this goal, the petrochemical industry, andactively carry out actions to reduce carbon emissions intensity,and Jilin Province hasalso developed a corresponding reduction strategy.Firstly, starting from the actual situation in Jilin Province, introduced thedevelopment of the petrochemical industry in recent years, and the advantages anddisadvantages of the status quo. Carbon emission factor method using carbonemissions Jilin petrochemical industry were estimated to calculate the carbon intensityof Jilin petrochemical industry, petrochemical analyzes the positive correlationbetween economic growth and carbon emissions industry.Secondly, use the factor decomposition model of the main factors affecting thecarbon intensity of the petrochemical industry in Jilin Province and analyze for theanalysis from the energy consumption structure, energy intensity and industrialstructure based on an attempt to read the literature, using the average of the number ofDi’s decomposition method (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method), draw theconclusion that energy consumption structure and energy intensity are the mainfactors in Jilin Province was the petrochemical industry, energy consumption structure play an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions intensity, energy intensity of carbonemission intensity from the stimulating effect, while the current industry structureJilin petrochemical industry on carbon intensity is not obvious.Thirdly, use a scenario analysis method to predict the future value of the linearfit of Jilin Petrochemical industry based on the structure of energy consumption,energy intensity setting different future development scenarios, energy intensityscenarios mainly based energy-degree different proportions of energy consumptionstructure is mainly set up different scenarios proportion of clean energy use, and thusthe reduction of carbon emissions and the potential for future Jilin forecast to2020.Finally, the impact of factors affecting the petrochemical industry in JilinProvince and scenario analysis, analysis of different scenarios for the development ofcountermeasures under study, considering the actual development of thepetrochemical industry in Jilin Province on the basis of the future development ofJilin Province to find suitable petrochemical industry policies to provide a referencefor policy makers.