Resource Allocation And Scheduling For Unconventional Emergency Based On"Scenario-Response"

With the rapid development of our social economy, the dangers of a variety of unconventional emergencies have become increasingly prominent, and the outbreak of the frequency rose sharply. These emergencies caused huge losses to the social production and people’s lives, such as natural disasters, catastrophic accidents, public health incidents, social security, and so on. In order to improve the response capacity of the decision-making bodies at all levels of our government for the unconventional emergencies and promoting the development of emergency management science, the management of unconventional emergency has become a frontier research topic.Compared with general emergencies, unconventional emergencies has many features, such as inadequate precursor, obvious complexity, potential secondary derivative hazard, devastating, and decision makers should be scenario-dependent. Existing studies have shown that the traditional "forecast-response" decision making model is difficult to deal with the unconventional emergencies, and "scenario-response" decision model can be well used to deal with. Based on the deep analysis of the "scenario-response" model, this thesis studies the evolution of unconventional emergencies scenarios, the generation process of the "scenarios-response" decision scheme, the demand classification and the reserve network system design for the emergency resource, the emergency demand prioritization and resource scheduling method for the multi-disaster point under the "scenarios-response" model, the current situation analysis for the configuration service system of emergency resource and policy recommendations for our country.The specific research contents are as follows:(1) The evolution of unconventional emergencies scenarios and the generation process of the "scenarios-response" decision schemeThe management decision of unconventional emergency is the real time decision the based on scenario dependent. Clearly understand and grasp emergency scenarios and their evolution are the foundation and basis for the decision-making body to make decision effectively. Therefore, it is necessary to study the process of unconventional emergencies scenario evolution. This thesis gives a model of the generation and implementation process of the "scenario-response" decision scheme for the unconventional emergencies. (2) The demand classification and the reserve network system design for the emergency resourceThe demand classification and the reserve network system design for the emergency resource are the foundation issues of the regional emergency resource configuration and optimize scheduling decisions. In this part, we first improve the traditional evidential reasoning algorithm and propose a emergency resource classification based on the evidence reasoning model. Then we propose a "hub-spoke" style emergency resource configuration service network system design methods based on the study of emergency logistics and hub-and-spoke network.(3) The emergency demand prioritization and resource scheduling method for the multi-disaster point under the "scenarios-response" modelThe key factors of the emergency resource configuration is the resource scarcity and the time urgency, and its purpose is to solve the contradiction between the emergency resource scarcity and initial demand uncertainty. In this part, we first give multiple decision makers incomplete linguistic assessment information for analysis and also give different linguistic variables of different experts to quantify and conversion. Then, we propose a emergency demand prioritization model for the multi-disaster point based on the evidence theory. Finally, we propose the resource scheduling decision-making method for the multi-disaster point considering the prioritization of the emergency points.(4) The current situation analysis for the configuration service system of emergency resource and policy recommendations for our countryChina is one of the most unconventional emergencies multiple countries in the world, and various forms of natural disasters and man-made disasters have occurred and caused great harm to our country’s economic and social development. In this part, we first describe the situation of China’s unconventional public emergencies, and then analyze the current situation and the deficiencies of the configuration service system design for emergency resource. Finally, we propose the policy recommendations for the emergency resource reserve system based on the "scenario-response"Main innovations of this paper are summarized as follows:(1) According to the characteristics of unconventional emergency, this thesis has studied the regional emergency resource configuration and optimize scheduling decision problems by using the "scenario-response" decision model. There are innovations on the research ideas. (2) This thesis has studied the regional resource demand classification for unconventional emergency and the prioritization for the multi-disaster point through the evidence theory. There are innovations on the research methods.(3) According to the classification of the regional resource demand and the prioritization of the multi-disaster point, this thesis has designed the service network system for the regional emergency resource demand based on the "scenario-response" model and resource scheduling method for the multi-disaster point. There are innovations on the research content.